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44
Business Spotlight
1/2021
LANGUAGE
Fo
tos: 3Dmask/iS
to
ck
.com; Mark
us Wissmann/Shutt
er
st
ock
.com; G
ert Kr
autbauer
allow for sth.
,
etw. berücksichtigen
debt burden
[(det )b§:d&n]
,
Schuldenlast
fiscal retrenchment
,
Haushaltskonsolidierung
foot the bill
,
die Rechnung begleichen
government bond
,
Staatsanleihe
incur sth.
[In(k§:]
,
etw. auf sich laden
loophole
,
Schlupfloch
premature
[(premEtSE]
,
verfrüht
purchaser
[(p§:tSEsE]
,
Käufer(in)
rack sth. up
,
etw. erzielen;
hier:
anhäufen
reschedule sth.
[)ri:(Sedju:l]
,
etw. neu
planen;
hier:
umschulden
sustainability
[sE)steInE(bIlEti]
,
Tragfähigkeit
tax revenues
[(revEnju:z]
,
Steuereinnahmen
ultimately
[(VltImEtli]
,
letzten Endes
TALKING FINANCE
“Now is not the time
to discuss tax rises”
Die in der Coronapandemie aufgelegten Hilfsprogramme
haben die Staatsverschuldung weltweit ansteigen lassen.
Doch ist dies momentan kein Grund für Steuererhöhungen.
ADVANCED
AUDIO
S
ince the start of the Covid-19
crisis, governments around the
world have spent huge sums of
money on new programmes,
incurred enormous deficits and racked
up debt levels
not normally seen in peace-
time. The aims of these programmes have
been to support the incomes of firms and
individuals, maintain the level of demand
and prevent a long and deep recession.
Such responses by government are en-
tirely correct in a time of crisis, but they
have raised important questions: where
does all the money that governments are
spending come from? And who will ulti-
mately pay the cost of the pandemic?
Governments finance their deficits by
borrowing in financial markets (or from
their central banks). In the short term, this
isn’t a problem for most (rich) countries.
The debt burden — and the future sus-
tainability of debt levels — depends not
just on the total
amount
of debt but also on
the
cost of servicing
the debt.
This cost is
easily manageable for many
countries. Interest rates are currently so
low that they can borrow at negative
real
rates (after allowing for inflation). In
some cases, governments can even bor-
row at negative
nominal
interest rates. This
means they will pay back less money than
they have borrowed — clearly a good deal.
In other words, the purchasers of govern-
ment bonds — and there is no shortage of
them in the case of rich countries — are
already footing part of the pandemic bill.
IAN MCMASTER
is editor-in-chief
of
Business
Spotlight.
Contact:
finance@business-
spotlight.de
Other people have also borne part of the burden of the cur-
rent crisis, of course. They have lost their jobs, been put on short-
time
working schemes, lost clients or seen their businesses
closed, either temporarily or permanently.
Governments hope that, as their economies recover, this will
automatically generate tax revenues — and reduce payments of
unemployment benefits — and therefore reduce their deficits.
But discussions have already started about whether there will
need to be tax increases (or cuts in government spending).
Such discussions are premature: now is not the time to
discuss tax rises. The focus should instead remain on getting
through the current crisis. As the
Financial Times
wrote recently,
“for governments in rich countries, there is no need to rush to-
wards fiscal retrenchment”.
Further into the future, there may indeed need to be tax in-
creases to reduce government deficits. Also, much
of the debt
of poorer countries will probably have to be written off and/or
debt payments will have to be rescheduled.
The interesting question will be: who bears the burden of any
future tax increases? Will it be those with higher incomes — for
example, through the closing of tax loopholes — or, as so often,
those with middle and/or low incomes, the people who also suf-
fer more when there are cuts in government spending?
But that, as I said, is a debate for the future, not now.
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