326
Positive Development
since 2000. The graph below represents the sum energy inputs of the three fuels analysed in the
previous graph. When population change is accounted for by dividing the sum of these fuels by
total population at each point in time, it is also clear that per capita energy consumption has
continued to rise, from approximately 135 GigaJoules to 155 GigaJoules over the last decade.
Taken together, the two graphs suggest that increases in total energy metabolism are caused
by both population growth and increased per capita consumption. While the rate of increase
may have flattened, the direction of change remains undesirable from an ecological standpoint.
The apparent ineffectiveness of current policies calls for scrutiny of the key characteristics
underlying these approaches.
First, the heavy reliance on efficiency initiatives has proven ineffective for several reasons. Such
initiatives are favoured largely due to a compatibility with ‘business-as-usual’ and society’s
preference for avoiding lifestyle change. However, increases in efficiency translate to increased
affordability, which may in turn actually
increase
overall demand due to ‘elasticity’ effects. There
are also indirect effects of reducing energy costs through efficiency in that consumers are able
to afford more products/appliances, or choose more feature-packed, energy-intensive models.
Consequently, resource efficiency does not guarantee resource conservation, particularly where
affluence is simultaneously rising.
Second, policies to increase the supply of alternative energy sources, as currently implemented,
are also limited. As overall supply is increased, prices (or at least price rises) may be dampened,
and thus consumption of
all
forms of electricity is supported. Similarly, increases in gas supply
and consumption can be seen to only dampen growth in electricity consumption, rather than
reducing consumption. Although gas is half as polluting it is less expensive than electricity. This
effectively lowers total energy costs, thus encouraging demand. Through these supply-side pro
-
cesses, the urban system is maintained in a perpetual state of exploitation, rather than evolving
towards a mature conservation-oriented structure as found in natural ecosystems.
In summary, the analysis points to the urgent need for sustainability policy that focuses on
reducing the
need
for resources, rather than providing for increasing demand more efficiently.
Efficiency and conservation are clearly different things. Political and capital interests remain
major obstacles to achieving the latter, as reflected by a lack of strategic commitment to
achieving stated goals.
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
145.0
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: