Thinking, Fast and Slow

20: The Illusion of Validity
this startling conclusion
: Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean, “Trading Is
Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of
Individual Investors,” 
Journal of Finance
55 (2002): 773–806.
men acted on their useless ideas
: Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean,
“Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock
Investment,” 
Quarterly Journal of Economics
116 (2006): 261–92.
selling “winners”
: This “disposition effect” 
is discussed further
.
responding to news
: Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean, “All That
Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of
Individual and Institutional Investors,” 
Review of Financial Studies
21
(2008): 785–818.

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wealth from amateurs
: Research on stock trades in Taiwan concluded that
the transfer of wealth from individuals to financial institutions amounts to a
staggering 2.2% of GDP: Brad M. Barber, Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and
Terrance Odean, “Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by
Trading?” 
Review of Financial Studies
22 (2009): 609–32.
underperform the overall market
: John C. Bogle, 
Common Sense on
Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor
(New York:
Wiley, 2000), 213.
persistent differences in skill
: Mark Grinblatt and Sheridan Titman, “The
Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance,” 
Journal of Finance
42 (1992):
1977–84. Edwin J. Elton et al., “The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual
Fund Performance,” 
Journal of Business
52 (1997): 1–33. Edwin Elton et
al., “Efficiency With Costly Information: A Re-interpretation of Evidence
from Managed Portfolios,” 
Review of Financial Studies
6 (1993): 1–21.
“In this age of academic hyperspecialization”
: Philip E. Tetlock, 
Expert
Political Judgment:
̶
> 
How Good is It? How Can We Know?
(Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 2005), 233.