Thinking, Fast and Slow

20: The Illusion of Validity
this startling conclusion
: Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean, “Trading Is Hazardous to
Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors,”
Journal of Finance
55 (2002): 773–806.
men acted on their useless ideas
: Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean, “Boys Will Be
Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment,” 
Quarterly Journal of
Economics
116 (2006): 261–92.
selling “winners”
: This “disposition effect” 
is discussed further
.
responding to news
: Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean, “All That Glitters: The Effect of
Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors,”
Review of Financial Studies
21 (2008): 785–818.
wealth from amateurs
: Research on stock trades in Taiwan concluded that the transfer of
wealth from individuals to financial institutions amounts to a staggering 2.2% of GDP:
Brad M. Barber, Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, “Just How Much Do
Individual Investors Lose by Trading?” 
Review of Financial Studies
22 (2009): 609–32.
underperform the overall market
: John C. Bogle, 
Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New
Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor
(New York: Wiley, 2000), 213.
persistent differences in skill
: Mark Grinblatt and Sheridan Titman, “The Persistence of
Mutual Fund Performance,” 
Journal of Finance
42 (1992): 1977–84. Edwin J. Elton et al.,
“The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance,” 
Journal of Business
52
(1997): 1–33. Edwin Elton et al., “Efficiency With Costly Information: A Re-
interpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios,” 
Review of Financial Studies
6
(1993): 1–21.
“In this age of academic hyperspecialization”
: Philip E. Tetlock, 
Expert Political

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Judgment:
̶> 
How Good is It? How Can We Know?
(Princeton: Princeton University Press,
2005), 233.