Thinking, Fast and Slow

15: Linda: Less is More
the role of heuristics
: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Extensional Versus Intuitive
Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment,” 
Psychological Review
90(1983), 293-315.
“a little homunculus”
: Stephen Jay Gould, 
Bully for Brontosaurus
(New York: Norton,
1991).
weakened or explained
: See, among others, Ralph Hertwig and Gerd Gigerenzer, “The
‘Conjunction Fallacy’ Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors,”
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
12 (1999): 275–305; Ralph Hertwig, Bjoern Benz,
and Stefan Krauss, “The Conjunction Fallacy and the Many Meanings of And,” 
Cognition
108 (2008): 740–53.
settle our differences
: Barbara Mellers, Ralph Hertwig, and Daniel Kahneman, “Do
Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial
Collaboration,” 
Psychological Science
12 (2001): 269–75.
16: Causes Trump Statistics
correct answer is 41%
: Applying Bayes’s rule in odds form, the prior odds are the odds
for the Blue cab from the base rate, and the likelihood ratio is the ratio of the probability
of the witness saying the cab is Blue if it is Blue, divided by the probability of the witness
saying the cab is Blue if it is Green: posterior odds = (.15/.85) × (.80/.20) = .706. The odds
are the ratio of the probability that the cab is Blue, divided by the probability that the cab
is Green. To obtain the probability that the cab is Blue, we compute: Probability (Blue) =
.706/1. 706 = .41. The probability that the cab is Blue is 41%.
not too far from the Bayesian
: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Causal Schemas in
Judgments Under Uncertainty,” in 
Progress in Social Psychology
, ed. Morris Fishbein
(Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1980), 49–72.
University of Michigan
: Richard E. Nisbett and Eugene Borgida, “Attribution and the
Psychology of Prediction,” 
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
32 (1975): 932–
43.
relieved of responsibility
: John M. Darley and Bibb Latane, “Bystander Intervention in
Emergencies: Diffusion of Responsibility,” 
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
8 (1968): 377–83.