The standard for project management

What-if scenario analysis. 

What-if scenario analysis is the process of evaluating scenarios in order to predict 

their effect, positive or negative, on project objectives. This is an analysis of the question, “What if the situation 

represented by scenario X happens?” A schedule network analysis is performed using the schedule to compute 

the different scenarios, such as delaying a major component delivery, extending specific engineering durations, 

or introducing external factors, such as a strike or a change in the permit process. The outcome of the what-if 

scenario analysis can be used to assess the feasibility of the project schedule under different conditions, and in 

preparing schedule reserves and response plans to address the impact of unexpected situations.

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Simulation. 

Simulation models the combined effects of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty 

to evaluate their potential impact on achieving project objectives. The most common simulation technique is 

Monte Carlo analysis (see Section 11.4.2.5), in which risks and other sources of uncertainty are used to calculate 

possible schedule outcomes for the total project. Simulation involves calculating multiple work package durations 

with different sets of activity assumptions, constraints, risks, issues, or scenarios using probability distributions 

and other representations of uncertainty (see Section 11.4.2.4). Figure 6-18 shows a probability distribution for a 

project with the probability of achieving a certain target date (i.e., project finish date). In this example, there is a 

10% probability that the project will finish on or before the target date of May 13, while there is a 90% probability 

of completing the project by May 28.

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Part 1 - Guide

Project Finish Date

0.08

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

100.0%

87.5%

75.0%

62.5%

50.0%

37.5%

25.0%

12.5%

0.0%

10.0%

05/28/17   19:45

05/13/2017   20:30

80.0%

10.0%

05/05/2017   05/10/2017 05/15/2017 05/20/2017 05/25/2017 05/30/2017 06/04/2017 06/09/2017 06/14/2017