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Exchange rates and inflation



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PMBOK Guide (6th Edition)

Exchange rates and inflation. 

For large-scale projects that extend multiple years with multiple currencies, the 

fluctuations of currencies and inflation need to be understood and built into the Estimate Cost process.

7.2.1.4 ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS ASSETS

The organizational process assets that can influence the Estimate Costs process include but are not limited to:

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Cost estimating policies,

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Cost estimating templates,

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Historical information and lessons learned repository.

7.2.2 ESTIMATE COSTS: TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

7.2.2.1 EXPERT JUDGMENT

Described in Section 4.1.2.1 Expertise should be considered from individuals or groups with specialized knowledge 

or training in the following topics:

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Previous similar projects;

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Information in the industry, discipline, and application area; and

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Cost estimating methods.


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Part 1 - Guide

7.2.2.2 ANALOGOUS ESTIMATING

Described in Section 6.4.2.2. Analogous cost estimating uses values, or attributes, of a previous project that are 

similar to the current project. Values and attributes of the projects may include but are not limited to: scope, cost, budget, 

duration, and measures of scale (e.g., size, weight). Comparison of these project values, or attributes, becomes the basis 

for estimating the same parameter or measurement for the current project. 

7.2.2.3 PARAMETRIC ESTIMATING

Described in Section 6.4.2.3. Parametric estimating uses a statistical relationship between relevant historical data 

and other variables (e.g., square footage in construction) to calculate a cost estimate for project work. This technique can 

produce higher levels of accuracy depending on the sophistication and underlying data built into the model. Parametric 

cost estimates can be applied to a total project or to segments of a project, in conjunction with other estimating methods.

7.2.2.4 BOTTOM-UP ESTIMATING

Described in Section 6.4.2.5. Bottom-up estimating is a method of estimating a component of work. The cost 

of individual work packages or activities is estimated to the greatest level of specified detail. The detailed cost 

is then summarized or “rolled up” to higher levels for subsequent reporting and tracking purposes. The cost and 

accuracy of bottom-up cost estimating are typically influenced by the size or other attributes of the individual 

activity or work package.

7.2.2.5 THREE-POINT ESTIMATING

Described in Section 6.4.2.4. The accuracy of single-point cost estimates may be improved by considering estimation 

uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to define an approximate range for an activity’s cost:

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