The magazine of the european research area European Commission Copenhagen, a missed chance?

Elisabeth Jeffries

 

   ENSEMBLES

 

 66 partners – 18 countries  

(AT-BE-CH-CZ-DE-DK-ES-FI-FR-

GR-IE-IT-NL-NO-PL-RO-SE-UK) 

 

2 non-European countries (AU-US)

 

www.ensembles-eu.org

CLIMATE MODELS

recalculate emission levels. This 

gives a level of stabilised CO

2

 equivalent of 

450 parts per million in 2140 (the decision-

makers set this figure as the maximum for tem-

peratures not to increase by more than 2°C). 

The results imply that emissions must fall back 

to zero at the end of the century, after having 

peaked in 2010 at around 12 gigatons of car-

bon equivalent. The next IPCC report is set 

to include a model that functions with the E1 

scenario.  

 

Refined probabilities

But one cannot ignore the fact that, howev-

er often the models are run, they remain pro-

jections nonetheless and will never be able to 

provide firm certitudes. Yet, in this respect also 

the ENSEMBLES team say they have achieved 

a first. The project produces a series of predic-

tions that are then evaluated to decide which 

results are more probable than others. The 

researchers say that they can measure the exact-

itude probability of any given projection thanks