The magazine of the european research area European Commission Copenhagen, a missed chance?

Storm warning

D

uring the afternoon of 18 January 2007 a violent 

storm swept across the European continent. The wind 

continued to gather strength, reaching a speed of 

202 km/hr in Germany before moving on to the Czech Republic. 

Insurance claims for damaged buildings and uprooted trees 

ran into several million euros. Power cuts affected thousands 

of homes in the United Kingdom and Germany. The storm, named Kyrill, began over Newfoundland, 

in Canada, before crossing the Atlantic and reaching the British Isles and then northern and central 

Europe. The trajectory and configuration of Kyrill is typical of winter extratropical cyclones, i.e., storms 

that originate outside the tropics. 

These cyclones are generated in regions where the temperature differences are very great, such 

as Florida and Greenland, and generally begin on the North American seaboard. The temperature 

differences cause air movements and strong winds that can grow into violent storms. Over the past 

40 years they have occurred at the rate of around five a year. The question is whether they are going 

to increase due to temperature changes, a development that would not be without its impact on 

the business world and governments. According to the ENSEMBLES team, who used the A1B emis-

sions scenario, there is a 90 % chance that storm damage in 2017-2100 will increase by between 

13 % and 37 % compared with the period 1961-2000 in southern Germany.  

© CNRS Phot

othèque/F

ranç

oise Guichar

d

, Laur

ent Ker

goat

Kyrill storm, beginning of 2007.

© E

umetsat

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eu No. 63 | APRIL 2010