Technology Roadmap Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry

Technology Roadmap
Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry
Roadmap modelling 
framework and 
methodology
The energy and direct CO
2
results of this roadmap 
are derived from the cement model of the IEA ETP 
project, which covers the global energy system. The 
ETP cement model follows a bottom-up approach, 
to account for the cement manufacturing processes, 
from obtaining raw materials and preparing the fuel 
through to cement grinding and milling. 
Each process or technology is characterised by 
energy performance, material yield and cost, 
within a set of realistic constraints. The model is 
based on TIMES
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and generates a cost-optimal 
technology portfolio to meet an exogenously set 
cement production level within defined constraints. 
Final energy demand by energy carrier, material 
and direct CO
2
flow, as well as related technology 
investments, are generated as results from the ETP 
cement model. The tool provides global coverage 
by aggregating 39 individually defined countries 
and regions.
The ETP cement model boundary is aligned with 
the cement manufacturing process (Figure 19). 
Additional resource use and emissions are 
associated with the processes of using cement in 
concrete, and the eventual disposal of concrete, but 
these aspects are beyond the scope of this model. 
The cement sector energy use and technology 
portfolio is characterised in the base year (2014) 
using energy use and material production statistics 
and estimates, including data from the WBCSD-CSI, 
the China Cement Association, the Confederation of 
Indian Industry, the Brazilian Sindicato Nacional da 
Indústria do Cimento and the IEA. 
51. TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) is a model 
generator developed by the IEA Energy Technology Systems 
Analysis Programme, and allows an economic representation 
of local, national and multiregional energy systems on a 
technologically detailed basis.
Changes in technology deployment and fuel 
mix over time in each scenario are influenced by 
exogenous assumptions of the potential for market 
penetration and energy performance of state-of-
the-art technologies, constraints on the availability 
of raw materials, techno-economic characteristics 
of the available technologies and process routes, 
assumed progress on demonstrating innovative 
technologies at commercial scale, and the direct 
CO
2
emissions budget defined in the scenario. The 
results are therefore sensitive to assumptions of the 
pace of physical capital turnover, relative costs of 
various technology options and fuels and incentives 
for the use of state-of-the-art technology for new 
capacity. Fuel costs are based on outputs from the 
ETP supply sector model, and are specific for each 
scenario analysed.
Demand for materials is an exogenous input to 
the model, estimated from data on GDP growth, 
per capita income, short-term industrial capacity, 
current material consumption levels, regional 
material demand saturation levels derived from 
historical regional material demand intensity curves 
and resource endowments. Regional GDP and 
population projections are based on various sources 
(IEA, 2016b; IMF, 2016; UN DESA, 2015). 
The low-variability case is considered the future 
evolution of cement production that is most likely, 
and thus is considered as the reference case for the 
analysis. A high-variability case has been developed 
by scaling up the relative variation of cement 
demand over time in the different regions to cope 
with the inherent uncertainty of projecting future 
material demand levels. The high-variability case 
is intended as a sensitivity analysis of the cement 
production levels. 
Annex

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Annex
KEY MESSAGE: The ETP cement model covers the cement manufacturing process.