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Table 2
Structural dynamics of the geography of Ukraine's foreign trade in 2014-2019 (million USD)
Indicator
years
total
Europe EU (28)
Asia
Africa
America
Australia
External
trade
turnover
2014
108330,4
39505,1
38072
26199,2
5778,1
4393,7
205,7
2015
75643,5
29913,6 28345,4 19614,7
4405
3122,2
183,2
2016
75611,5
32260,3 30637,1 20716,8
4419
3330
138,9
2017
92871,9
40824,3 38332,8 23646,7
4766,7
4823,5
223,3
2018
104522,6
45976,8 43373,5 27371,4
4884,9
5730,6
117,9
2019
110854,8
64741,4 45762,9 34040,6
5790,7
5865,6
175,8
Changes from
2019 to 2014, ±%
+2,3
+63,9
+20,2
+29,9
+0,2
+33,5
-14,5
Export
2014
53901,7
17122,1 17002,9 15350,9
5098,2
1372,2
23,5
2015
38127,1
13248,3 13015,2 12378,9
3803,3
785,6
13,6
2016
36361,7
13790,1 13496,3 11796,3
3865,1
735,2
18,3
2017
43264,7
17901,9 17533,4 12967,3
4047,7
1207,9
71,9
2018
47335
20606
20157
13754,1
4127
1620
48,6
2019
50054,6
26739,5 20750,7 16646,1
4971,5
1467,9
59
Changes from
2019 to 2014, ±%
-7,1
+56,2
+22,0
+8,4
-2,5
+7,0
+151,1
Import
2014
54428,7
22383
21069,1 10848,3
679,9
3021,5
182,2
2015
37516,4
16665,3 15330,2
7235,8
601,7
2336,6
169,6
2016
39249,8
18470,2 17140,8
8920,5
553,9
2594,8
120,6
2017
49607,2
22922,4 20799,4 10679,4
719
3615,6
151,4
2018
57187,6
25370,8 23216,5 13617,3
757,9
4110,6
69,3
2019
60800,2
38001,9 25012,2 17394,5
819,2
4397,7
116,8
Changes from
2019 to 2014, ±%
+11,7
+69,8
+18,7
+60,3
+20,5
+45,5
-35,9
Сальдо
2014
-527,0
-5260,9 -4066,2
4502,6
4418,3
-1649,3
-158,7
2015
610,7
-3417,0 -2315,0
5143,1
3201,6
-1551,0
-156,0
2016
-2888,1
-4680,1 -3644,5
2875,8
3311,2
-1859,6
-102,3
2017
-6342,5
-5020,5 -3266,0
2287,9
3328,7
-2407,7
-79,5
2018
-9852,6
-4764,8 -3059,5
136,8
3369,1
-2490,6
-20,7
2019
-10745,6 -11262,4 -4261,5
-748,4
4152,3
-2929,8
-57,8
Changes from
2019 to 2014, ±%
+1939,0
+114,1
+4,8
-116,6
-6,0
+77,6
-63,6
Source: calculated by the author based on [4]
A global market with a capacity of about 500 million European consumers has
opened up for Ukrainian producers. At the same time, it is worth noting the factor of
deindustrialization of domestic exports to the EU with the predominance of the share
of agricultural products, according to which Ukraine ranks third in the world (after the
US and Brazil) [1]. In particular, in 2019, Ukraine exported 7.3 billion euros of
agricultural products to the EU (an increase of 2 billion euros compared to the previous
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year), but at the same time imported 7.0 billion euros [2].
The structure of exports and imports shows a dangerous technological
disproportion for Ukraine, namely raw material imports from Ukraine and high-tech
EU exports, maintaining a negative balance in foreign trade for most groups of goods
and limited access of domestic businesses to the European market. At the same time,
the liberalization of foreign economic aspects of market development leads to
increased competition in the domestic market of Ukraine, determines not only the
benefits but also the possible risks. The risks of foreign investors are more related to
the difficulty of starting a business in Ukraine and the low legal protection of
intellectual property rights. In particular, according to Doing Business-2020 [11],
which analyzes the institutional conditions for promoting business activity in 190
countries, Ukraine in 2020 ranked only 64th place (in 2019 - 71st place). Despite the
improvement of such indicators as obtaining permits (by 10 points) or protection of
minority investors (by 27 points), most of the studied characteristics show a slight
improvement, and the conditions of taxation - a deterioration of 11 points.
At the same time, the macroeconomic situation in 2014-2019 remained quite
vulnerable, the state budget deficit at the end of the corresponding year was: in 2014 -
UAH 40.1 billion, in 2015 - UAH 30.9 billion, in 2016. - UAH 63.4 billion, in 2017 -
UAH 42.1 billion, in 2018 - UAH 7.3 billion, in 2019 - UAH 20.7 billion. The state
budget for 2019 was underfulfilled in almost all articles. Revenues were fulfilled by
99.1%: from the expected UAH 1,007.3 billion. UAH 998.3 billion was received. Non-
fulfillment of targets was due to taxes, transfers from the European Union, international
organizations, capital transactions, while revenues from government and non-tax
revenues were higher than expected. In 2019, state budget funding was planned at UAH
91.1 billion, but real funding was at UAH 81 billion. (88.9%). The worst situation with
the implementation of planned indicators was observed in terms of revenues from the
privatization of state property (3.2%). Expenditures were planned at UAH 1,093
billion, but in fact expenditures amounted to UAH 1,075.1 billion. (98.4%), while the
targets were exceeded in terms of defense, public safety and social protection [9]. To a
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large extent, the non-fulfillment of budget targets was influenced by a systematic
increase in the officially determined minimum wage and a reduction in the single social
contribution rate.
The poverty rate in Ukraine in 2019 was 3.5%, working poverty - about 20%,
relative poverty - about 25%, child poverty - 32.6%. Consumption below the
subsistence level was recorded in 2019 at 22.1% [4]. The problem of declining incomes
was most acute in the zone of military conflict in eastern Ukraine and among internally
displaced persons. Its implementation was aimed at implementing the State Poverty
Reduction Strategy [6] and Ukraine's accession to the UN Program "Sustainable
Development Goals 2016-2030" [8], the targets of which are the elimination of
absolute poverty (US $ 5.05 per day), reduction of relative poverty to 25%, reduction
of 10 times the share of people whose consumption level is less than the actual
subsistence level.
In general, after the fall during 2014-2015, in 2016 the Ukrainian market began
to emerge from the crisis, there were trends in GDP growth (+ 2.3%), industrial
production (+ 2.8%), manufacturing (+4) , 3%). In 2019, real GDP growth was 3.3%,
which was played by private consumption, due to the improvement in consumer
sentiment (Table 3).
To improve the situation with the state budget, instruments of short-term influence
were mostly used, in particular, strict control of nominal expenditures and the
introduction of emergency tax measures. The riskiness of the current taxation system
on tax rate speculation led to changes in the Tax Code of Ukraine in 2020 [10], which
provided for accession to the international program of expanded cooperation BEPS and
step-by-step introduction of transfer pricing control, taxation of controlled foreign
companies, limiting financial transaction costs. related parties, prevention of abuse in
connection with the application of agreements on avoidance of double taxation,
application of the procedure of mutual agreement. Ukraine’s participation in BEPS
could be an impetus for the liberalization of currency regulation policy, which is
included in Ukraine’s commitments under the Association Agreement with the EU.
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