Russia 090813 Basic Political Developments

Russian border guards exercise in Pacific with FSB aviation

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090813/155798456.html

PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY, August 13 (RIA Novosti) - Russian coast guards and Federal Security Service (FSB) air units have conducted a series of exercises in the Pacific, a spokesman said on Thursday.

He said the tactical exercise rehearsed actions to counter unlawful activities at sea, as well as search and rescue operations, and involved a patrol boat, a frigate, a helicopter carrier, and several warplanes and helicopters.

The exercise was observed by a group of visiting police officers from Germany.

"The German guests were impressed by the high professionalism of the Russian pilots," the FSB spokesman said, adding that all the missions were successfully accomplished.

Russian army drills to defend oil, gas exports

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE57B59420090812
Wed Aug 12, 2009 3:27pm EDT

By Dmitry Solovyov

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Russian army is holding its first major training exercises to protect against what Moscow sees as possible terrorist attacks on its vital oil and gas export routes, the military and media said Wednesday.

Sweeping drills in the Siberian Military district, covering a theater of operations spanning hundreds of miles (km) from Irkutsk to Buryatia near Lake Baikal, started Monday and entered their main phase Wednesday.

"The main focus of the drills is training for effective and preventative measures to counter terrorism and deal with the aftermath of emergencies, as well as with abnormal situations linked to transporting hydrocarbons," the Defense Ministry said on its Website www.mil.ru.

Russia, the world's No. 2 oil exporter, is building a pipeline to carry oil from huge new fields in eastern Siberia to energy-hungry Asian markets, including China, a move that will diversify Moscow's energy reach beyond its traditional European markets.

The Defense Ministry said the army had joined forces with other Russian security bodies for the exercises, but did not elaborate.

The ministry did note, however, that protecting railways and "other important facilities of the Siberian Military District" figured in the exercises.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily said similar drills would be held in northern and north-western Russia in late August and early September focusing on threats to Russia's gas export route to the West.

It said that in addition to the Leningrad Military District, Russia's Black Sea and Baltic fleets and ally Belarus's military units would take part.

Seeking to diversify its gas exports to Europe and bypass its unpredictable post-Soviet transit partner Ukraine, Russia heads up the Nord Stream gas project which is supposed to have a twin pipeline up and running in 2011.

Nord Stream would bring 55 billion cubic metres of Russian gas to Germany and other European Union consumers each year across the Baltic seabed.

(Reporting by Dmitry Solovyov; Editing by Michael Roddy)

New Russian Military Doctrine to Address Nukes in Classified Section

http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20090812_9465.php

Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2009

An updated Russian military doctrine to be issued this year is expected to address the country's nuclear weapons strategy in its classified section, Interfax reported yesterday (see GSN, May 21).

"The new military doctrine, being developed under the leadership of the Russian Security Council, will differ from the current one. It will have two parts -- the open part mostly dealing with the military-political aspects, and the closed part, which will clearly formulate the legal aspects of the army and navy's employment, including the use of nuclear weapons as an instrument of strategic deterrence," said Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, co-chairman of the panel drafting the document.

The United States and other Western nations classify portions of their military doctrines, Nogovitsyn noted.

"We have been carefully studying the leading documents and the United States and NATO's position on military issues, which also have closed sections. But all this does not mean that the Russian side is trying to fan tensions, or position Washington and the alliance as a main threat," he said (Interfax, Aug. 11).

NATO and Russia should tap a five-year-old joint panel to discuss strategic matters, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen yesterday told Russia's ambassador to the military alliance.

Fogh Rasmussen hopes to establish "a strategic partnership between NATO and and Russia ... because we face many common security threats," deputy spokeswoman Carmen Romero said.

The new head of NATO and Russian Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin discussed how the sides could work together to counter nuclear proliferation and terrorism, Romero added (Slobodan Lekic, Associated Press/Google News, Aug. 11).

Ruin of Harvest in Russia Will Shake World Markets

http://www.rusbiznews.com/news/n460.html
11.08.2009 — Analysis

Russia may have to face a food crisis next winter. Whole fields of fodder and cereal crops have been withered by scorching sun in the European part of the country. The RusBusinessNews observer found out how big the losses in the Urals are, and what farmers and grain traders should expect in 2010.

Russian agrarians are finishing stocking up the fodder for the winter and have serious reasons for a grave concern. 243 thousand hectares of crops have burnt out in the Chelyabinsk Oblast. Kurgan farmers need three tons of coarse and succulent fodder per one animal; they now have stocked up only 15-20% of the required amount. In the Sverdlovsk Oblast the level of fodder inventory is one third lower than last year.

The situation is relatively stable only in the Western Siberia and Prikamye (lands near the Kama river). Stocking up fodder is going according to plan in the Tyumen Oblast. Country dwellers, however, do not think there would be any surplus. Only the Perm Krai, one of the very few subjects of the Russian Federation, managed to accumulate some reserves.

Agrarians are left without fodder due to the unpredictable Urals weather. The region has traditionally been considered high-risk for crop farming, whilst June had been uncustomary hot this year. The air in the Kurgan Oblast got as hot as 30 centigrade, ground - plus 50. Emergency situation has been declared due to drought in some districts of the Chelyabinsk Oblast.

The end of July saw some rain at long last. These rains were not much help to farmers. "We have not seen hail like this for 15 years," Pavel Vasin, Director of the Kalininskaya Agro Company (Chelyabinsk), told RusBusinessNews. "435 hectares of crops had suffered then. This time we lost 3,000 hectares of wheat, 716 hectares of annual grasses, 639 hectares of barley, 223 hectares of peas, and 100 hectares of oats."

Urals agrarians are trying to find, quickly, places where more hay can be cut - fields and pastures which are unused currently. Yuri Simonov, a specialist from the Department for International Relations of the Ministry for Agriculture of the Chelyabinsk Oblast, informed RusBusinessNews that, as of 6 August 2009, the total area of hayfields has exceeded the plan 1.5 times and only 60% of the needed fodder has been stocked up. Some agrarians started the second sowing of annual plants in hope that by the fall it would be possible to add the new seedlings to the stockpile. If that does not work, then it would be necessary to import fodder into the region.

Agrarians from other subjects of the Russian Federation are unlikely to be able to help their colleagues in the Urals. Almost all of the European part of Russia has suffered from the drought. Shortages of cereals may amount to 10-15 million tons in the country as a whole. The Orenburg Oblast has lost more than 80% of cereals to the drought; the damage amounts to billions of roubles.

Even if some reserves are found, it is as likely as not that, in the situation of shortages, the market prices for fodder and cereals will start creeping up. This might worsen the financial situation in the agricultural sphere. The debts of the Urals agricultural companies have already reached hundreds of millions of roubles. In the beginning of the sowing season agrarians were buying seeds against the future harvest, and leased and took out loans for equipment. The grasses have burned together with the money; many agricultural companies are now on the brink of bankruptcy.

They do not expect any help from local authorities. The Department for Agriculture and Processing Industry of the Kurgan Oblast informed RusBusinessNews that in the current situation of crisis the local budget simply does not have any funds available. The Governor of the Chelyabinsk Oblast Pyotr Sumin promised to help the countryside: 331 million roubles will be allocated to purchase fodder. This, however, is only a part of the money needed. The money will mainly be made available to those companies which raise cattle. Small farms, most likely, will have to slaughter the animals having no food for them.

The Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin promised to help Russian farmers. In the beginning of August 2009 in the field meeting in the Orenburg Oblast he made a statement that a hundred billion roubles can be allocated for the overcoming of consequences of the drought and natural disasters. It is not clear, however, how soon the money would reach the regions, nor how it will be distributed.

Even if the problem is resolved within the country, the loss of millions of tons of agricultural products in the burnt-out Russian fields will still affect the world markets. Last year Russian agrarians managed to harvest 108 million tons of cereals - a record-breaking amount for the post-Soviet time. More than 20% of it was officially reported to have been exported abroad. Russian grain took up to 14% of the world market. This year the country will not be as generous. This is why the world cereals prices might start to creep up by the autumn.

Yevghenia Yeryomina