Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Figure 1-7: Non-oil Commodity Price Indices 
and the Baltic Index (points) 
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2019
2020
2021
Non-energy
Food
Raw Materials
Shipping_Index (R-axis)
Source: World Bank, REFINITIV EIKON, & PSA 

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Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
33 
Furthermore, there was significant shift in the 
lifestyle of population, the most important of 
which includes, for example, preparing and 
eating meals at home instead of at 
restaurants, which led to the expansion of 
food purchases from supermarkets and 
shops, although their supply was limited, 
which led to the inevitable increase in prices.
Global Commodity Price Forecasts 
From the foregoing, it is clear that the 
factors of high inflation rates around the 
world did not come only from: (1) a shortage 
in the supply of goods and services to meet 
the high aggregate demand, (2) or from the 
high costs of transportation, shipping and 
storage, but there are other factors that 
contributed to raising prices, although they 
differ from one country to another, for 
example:: 
•
Oil and gas importing countries suffered 
from inflation due to the high costs of 
production for goods and services, as well 
as the high costs of utilities such as 
electricity and water resulting from the rise 
in fuel prices. 
•
Also, thanks to the availability of financial 
liquidity for individuals and families 
resulting from the increase in family 
savings, government incentives, and low-
interest rates, it led to increase 
expenditure consumption - at least in the 
United States of America - the purchase of 
used and new cars, driven by the fear of 
infection with the virus while using public 
transportation, which in turn increased car 
prices and thus led to increasing inflation. 
•
The policy of reducing interest rates has 
also contributed to raising the value of 
fixed assets by increasing the demand for 
them, which may have enhanced the 
feeling of financial abundance among the 
owners of fixed assets, which may also 
result in an increase in consumer and 
investment spending. 
On the other hand, it should be noted that 
despite the positive aspects of changing 
lifestyles created by the Covid-19 scale, such 
as increasing the habit of eating fewer meals 
at home that are less expensive than eating 
in restaurants, which may benefit increased 
savings for the consumer, but in the US, for 
instance, the reduced attention and 
expenditures on services (such as 
restaurants) transformed into the large-scale 
purchase of durbale goods made in 
worldwide, which has led to disruptions in the 
shipping trade due to the aforementioned 
shortage of truck drivers and the slower 
unloading rates caused by the requirement 
for port workers to socially distance, thus 
stranding unloaded ships in West Coast ports 
for many days, contributing to the 
phenomenon of containers being plentiful but 
in the wrong locations. 
Therefore, many observers believe that most 
countries will continue to see a rise in 
consumer prices until the first half of 2022, 
albeit to varying degrees. Emerging markets 
and developing economies, many of which 
remain largely unvaccinated and are still 
suffering from the impacts of the Covid-19