Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Qatar Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
v 
a period of only one year, this current report 
is concerned with monitoring and analyzing 
economic developments during a longer 
duration, i.e., the period (2017 to September 
2021). It also initiated a quantitative and 
qualitative assessment of the impact of the 
(Covid-19) pandemic and its repercussions 
on the economic and public financial 
conditions, the banking sector and the foreign 
trade of the State of Qatar. It also provided a 
brief 
description 
of 
international 
developments towards issues of climate 
change policies and how the State of Qatar 
dealt with these developments from the 
institutional and planning standpoints. 
The report’s interest in those issues and 
period is driven by the remarkable progress 
achieved in the area of economic, social, and 
statistical planning. 
Therefore, we have concluded from 
preliminary analyses that the average annual 
rate of change of GDP at constant prices 
during the period (2017-2019) amounted to 
about 0.13%, with a maximum of 1.2% and a 
minimum of negative 1.5%. Most of the 
growth came from non-oil activities at 1.1%, 
while the data of oil sector activities showed 
a decline of negative 1.4%, as a result of the 
fact that some oil and gas fields have hit the 
peak of their production capacity, and 
therefore their productivity declines when 
periodic maintenance is performed. 
Furthermore, the preliminary data of GDP at 
constant prices for 2020 also showed an 
economic contraction of about negative 
3.56%, most of it came from the decline in the 
oil sector's activities by negative 2.1%, but it 
was exacerbated by the repercussions of 
containment measures (Covid-19) on non-oil 
activities, which decreased by negative 4.1%. 
On the other hand, the consensus forecasts 
by a number of international institutions, 
organizations, and banks showed that the 
Qatari economy will undergo recovery during 
2021 and 2022, with a predicted average 
growth rate of about 2.8% and 3.7%, 
respectively. Such forecasts are based on 
the assumption that hydrocarbon exports will 
recover significantly in a business-as-usual 
scenario, which thereby would increase the 
flow of financial revenues and achieve 
surpluses in the fiscal balance and the 
current account of the balance of payments, 
allowing the government to finance the 
largest possible number of development 
projects. The consensus forecasts also 
showed that the Qatari economy continues to 
be subject to imported inflationary pressures 
due to dependence on international trade, 
which its cost is currently witnessing an 
increase on a large scale. 
It should be noted that the Planning and 
Statistics Authority (PSA), through regular 
monitoring of the performance of 
macroeconomic indicators, both in terms of 
quantity and quality, prepared three possible 
scenarios for Qatar’s economic outlook 
during 2021 – 2023 based on two 
assumptions:(1) how far the economy will 
recover by easing Covid-19 containment 
measures, and (2) how far the economic 
activities will respond to measures to improve 
the business environment, raise the 
efficiency of resource use, and increase 
productivity.
Here, it can be said that the preliminary 
results of the PSA’s forecasts for non-oil 
activities (non-hydrocarbon Gross Value 
Added) for the three scenarios indicate that it 
is likely to grow between 3% and 3.9% in 
2021, and between 2.8% and 4.7% in 2022, 
driven by the expectations of booming 

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