Data Availability
The data used to support the findings of this study are included within the article.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (G010303).
References
R. H. Coase and R. F. Fowler, “Bacon production and the pig-cycle in Great Britain,” Economica, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 142–167, 1935.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
R. H. Coase and R. F. Fowler, “The pig-cycle in Great Britain: an explanation,” Economica, vol. 4, no. 13, p. 55, 1937.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
L. D. Stearns and L. A. Petry, “Hog market cycles”, library.ndsu.edu, 1996.
P. J. Dawson, “The UK pig cycle: a spectral analysis,” British Food Journal, vol. 111, no. 11, pp. 1237–1247, 2009.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, McGraw-Hill Higher Education, New York, NY, USA, 2000.
M. H. Huang, “International comparisons of cattle cycles,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 78, no. 4, pp. 855–868, 1996.View at: Google Scholar
M. Ezekiel, “The cobweb theorem,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 255–280, 1938.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
A. A. Harlow, “The hog cycle and the cobweb theorem,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 42, no. 2, pp. 842–853, 1960.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
H. Talpaz, “Multi-frequency cobweb model: decomposition of the hog cycle,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 56, no. 1, pp. 38–49, 1974.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
F. V. Waugh, “Cobweb models,” Journal of Farm Economics, vol. 46, no. 4, pp. 732–750, 1964.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
L. D. McClements, “Econometric forecasts of pig supply,” Applied Economics, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 27–34, 1970.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
M. E. Slade, “Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: an analysis of the time domain,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 0–137, 1982.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
G. C. Haas and M. Ezekiel, Factors Affecting the Price of Hogs, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, USA, 1926.
H. A. Simon, Models of Bounded Rationality, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA, 1982.
E. Berg and R. Huffaker, “What drives the German hog price cycle? diagnostic modeling of a nonlinear dynamic system,” in Proceedings of the EAAE 2014 Congress Agri-Food and Rural Innovations for Healthier Societies, Ljubljana, Slovenia, August 2014.View at: Google Scholar
A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, “Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases,” Science, vol. 185, pp. 1124–1131, 1974.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
D. A. Bessler and J. A. Brandt, “Forecasting livestock prices with individual and composite methods,” Applied Economics, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 513–522, 1981.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
Rostow, W. (1993) Nonlinear dynamics and economics: A Historian’s Perspective, in Day.
D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, “The simulation heuristic,” in Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, D. Kahneman, Ed., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982.View at: Google Scholar
M. Nerlove, “Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 72, no. 2, pp. 227–240, 1958.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
A. Marcet and T. J. Sargent, “The fate of systems with “adaptive” expectations,” American Economic Review, vol. 78, no. 2, pp. 168–172, 1988.View at: Google Scholar
M. E. Gerlow, S. H. Irwin, and T.-R. Liu, “Economic evaluation of commodity price forecasting models,” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 387–397, 1993.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
Y. Tan and H. O. Zapata, “Southern, hog price transmission in Global markets: China EU and U.S.,” in Proceedings of the Agricultural Economics Association 2014 Annual Meeting, Dallas, TX, USA, February 2014.View at: Google Scholar
H. F. Breimyer, “Emerging phenomenon: a cycle in hogs,” Journal of Farm Economics, vol. 41, no. 4, p. 760, 1959.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
W. Shun, S. Liming, and J. Zeng, “An empirical analysis of the influencing factors of pork price volatility in my country,” Cooperative Economy and Technology, vol. 578, no. 3, pp. 82–85, 2018.View at: Google Scholar
R. T. Norris, “The Theory of Consumer’s Demand,” Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, USA, 1941, Ph.D. thesis.View at: Google Scholar
Y. Qi, Study on Price Fluctuation in China's Pig Market, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, China, 2008.
S. He, H. Zeng, and B. He, “Estimation and periodic comparison of pork demand elasticity of rural residents in China-based on extended linear expenditure system,” Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45, no. 15, pp. 335–338, 2017.View at: Google Scholar
R. A. Heiner, The American Economic Review, vol. 73, no. 4, American Economic Association, Nashville, TN, USA, 1983.
J. M. E. Pennings and A. Smidts, “Assessing the construct validity of risk attitude,” Management Science, vol. 46, no. 10, pp. 1337–1348, 2000.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
D. Kahneman, “Experienced utility and objective happiness: a moment-based approach,” Choices, Values, and Frames, vol. 39, pp. 673–692, 2000.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
L. H. Bean, “The farmers’ response to price,” Journal of Farm Economics, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 368–385, 1929.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
C. R. E. Bailey, “A Theory of commodity price fluctuations,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 104, no. 5, pp. 924–957, 1996.View at: Google Scholar
D. J. Hayes and A. Schmitz, “Hog cycles and countercyclical production response,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 69, no. 4, pp. 762–770, 1987.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
Y. He and X. Zhao, “Coordination in multi-echelon supply chain under supply and demand uncertainty,” International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 139, no. 1, pp. 106–115, 2012.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
Y. He and X. Zhao, “Contracts and coordination: supply chains with uncertain demand and supply,” Naval Research Logistics (NRL), vol. 63, no. 4, pp. 305–319, 2016.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
N. M. Modak and P. Kelle, “Using social work donation as a tool of corporate social responsibility in a closed-loop supply chain considering carbon emissions tax and demand uncertainty,” Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2019.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
N. M. Modak, N. Modak, S. Panda, and S. S. Sana, “Analyzing structure of two-echelon closed-loop supply chain for pricing, quality and recycling management,” Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 171, pp. 512–528, 2018.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
N. M. Modak and P. Kelle, “Managing a dual-channel supply chain under price and delivery-time dependent stochastic demand,” European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 272, no. 1, pp. 147–161, 2019.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
P. He, H. Y. He, and H. Xu, “Channel structure and pricing in a dual-channel closed-loop supply chain with government subsidy,” International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 213, pp. 108–123, 2019.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
S. S. Sana, N. M. S. Panda, and N. Modak, “Optimal replenishment and sales team initiatives for pharmaceutical products - a mathematical model,” Pacific Science Review B: Humanities and Social Sciences, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 15–21, 2015.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
Y. He, D. H. Huang, S. J. C. Li, C. Shi, and S. Wu, “Quality and operations management in food supply chains: a literature review,” Journal of Food Quality, vol. 2018, Article ID 7279491, 14 pages, 2018.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
M. T. Holt and L. A. Craig, “Nonlinear dynamics and structural change in the U.S. Hog-corn cycle: a time-varying STAR approach,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 88, no. 1, pp. 215–233, 2006.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
D. Zhou and D. Koemle, “Price transmission in hog and feed markets of China,” Journal of Integrative Agriculture, vol. 14, no. 6, pp. 1122–1129, 2015.View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar
D. L. Meadows, Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles, Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA, USA, 1970.
J. A. Schumpeter, A Theory of Economic Development, Bloomsbury Business Library Management Library, London, UK, 1934.
J. Sterman, in Handbook of Behavioral Operations Management: Social and Psychological Dynamics in Production and Service Settings, pp. 203–237, Oxford University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2015.
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |