Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

MANAGING FORECAST DATA
FIGURE 11
Occupancy and index data: The Altoona Hotel and competitive set.
Occupancy Data for the Month of: November
Property
Occupancy (%)
Index
Altoona Hotel
60%
Competitive set (six selected hotels, including the Altoona)
Scenario 1
40%
133.3
Scenario 2
60%
100.0
Scenario 3
80%
66.6
233

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21.1 percent for the 12 months ending October, 200Z (see line 22). Its competitive
set for the same period is down 8.0 percent from the prior 12-month period (also
reported in line 22). Note also that the competitive set that includes the Altoona has
experienced a monthly occupancy decline compared with the prior year in 10 of the
13 months for which data are presented (see lines 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13).
When the FOM projects November (and beyond) room demand at the Altoona,
he or she can make several conclusions from the data in Figure 12:
•
The Altoona will, in all likelihood, experience room demand in November this
year that is less than in November last year.
•
The reduced demand is experienced by hotels in the competitive set as well as
by the Altoona. Therefore, reduced demand is more likely to be an effect of
economic conditions than a result of a poor sales effort by Altoona staff.
•
The rate at which occupancy is declining at the competitive set hotels exceeds
that of the Altoona; thus, the Altoona’s sales staff is probably doing the things
required to keep the property competitive.
•
Competitive set hotels will, in all likelihood, review the room rates charged.
The portion of the STR trend report presented in Figure 12 is just one example
of the quantity and quality of data available to FOMs. Careful review of the data will
improve their forecasting abilities and room-pricing decisions. As you can see, the