Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

FRONT OFFICE SEMANTICS
Occupancy forecast:
Estimate of future occupancy stated as a percentage of rooms available.
The computation of the occupancy forecast percentage is similar to the compu-
tation of an actual occupancy percentage:
Some PMS systems generate availability forecasts rather than occupancy fore-
casts to evaluate room demand.
FRONT OFFICE SEMANTICS
Availability forecast:
Estimate of the number of rooms that remain to be sold.
Figure 2 details the same January data for the Altoona Hotel shown in Figure 1
in the format of an availability forecast.
Rooms
sold
Rooms
available
=
Actual
occupancy
%
Forecast
of
room
demand
Rooms
available
=
Occupancy
forecast
%
Date:
Jan.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Day
Mon.
Tues.
Wed.
Thurs.
Fri.
Sat.
Sun.
Rooms available
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
Forecast of room demand
180
180
180
240
300
300
90
Occupancy forecast 
60%
60%
60%
80%
100%
100%
30%
FIGURE 1
Occupancy forecast for the Altoona Hotel.
Date:
Jan.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Day
Mon.
Tues.
Wed.
Thurs.
Fri.
Sat.
Sun.
Rooms available
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
Forecast of rooms available
120
120
120
60
0
0
210
Availability forecast 
40%
40%
40%
20%
0%
0%
70%
FIGURE 2
Availability forecast for the Altoona Hotel.
216

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Whereas the occupancy forecast tells FOMs how many rooms are projected to be
sold, the availability forecast tells FOMs about the rooms that remain to be sold.
and
Some FOMs use both systems. They rely on occupancy forecasts to analyze
demand for dates far into the future, and they evaluate availability forecasts for dates
that are near (within one or two weeks). Regardless of the preferred forecast system,
FOMs must estimate demand to match room rates with the number of travelers will-
ing to pay those rates.
Most PMSs include forecasting programs or components that provide necessary
historical and current data. However, ultimate responsibility for making and acting
on forecasts rests with FOMs. The following paragraph is typical of the marketing
material FOMs encounter when they select forecasting components integrated
within a PMS or other systems that are built to interface with an existing PMS.
The “Forecast Tool” brings together the industry’s most sophisticated tools for
forecasting, analysis, and rate quotation in a fully integrated, easy-to-use design.
Our “Forecast Tool” guides transient reservation agents and group sales
managers in offering rates and dates that maximize RevPar.
PMS forecasting modules may indeed “guide” hotel staff as they sell rooms, but
FOMs ultimately makes the best occupancy forecasts and, therefore, maximize
RevPar. Effective FOMs follow these guidelines:
•
Recognize the unique property features that affect demand for the hotel
•
Know about special citywide events in the area that affect room demand
•
Understand the demand for competitive hotels in the area
•
Consider the opening or closing of competitive hotels in the area
•
Include weather, road construction, season of the year, and any other relevant
factors in demand assessments
•
Adjust forecasts quickly when confronted with significant events that affect
demand (e.g., power outages and airport or highway closings)
Sophisticated PMS forecast programs can manage the data that help FOMs fore-
cast room demand. These programs are improving rapidly, but they will always be fore-
casting tools for FOMs’ use. They will never replace the skill and experience of FOMs.
Rooms
available
to
sell
1
100%
2
-
Availability
forecast
%
=
Occupancy
forecast
%
Rooms
available
to
sell
1
100%
2
-
Occupancy
forecast
%
=
Availability
forecast
%