Waning global integration
The increasing integration of the global economy
played an important role in the sharp decline in
extreme global poverty in recent decades, and it
was made possible in part because of the general
use of a set of predictable rules for economic
relations. This has been waning in recent years,
contributing to higher tariff barriers, greater policy
uncertainty, and market volatility.
A continuing move toward more contentious
relations in international affairs could result in
protracted period. By choice or out of necessity,
some sovereigns may improve budget deficits
through austerity measures and cuts to public
investment. Private investment plummeted during
the crisis, and the recovery may be particularly
FIGURE 1.17
Risk of greater long-term damage from the
pandemic
Both recessions and pandemics inflict lasting economic damage on
affected countries. The current recession comes on the heels of a long
period of slowing potential growth and is likely to accelerate this trend.
Potential output could slow further if private investment does not fully
recover, or if disruptions to schooling persist.
Sources
: EM-DAT (database); Haver Analytics; Kilic Celik, Kose, and Ohnsorge (2020); Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development; World Bank.
Note
: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies; EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA =
Europe and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA = Middle East and North
Africa, SAR = South Asia, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
A. fin. = financial. Vertical lines show 90 percent confidence intervals. The "Potential after recessions"
and "Potential after recessions with fin. crisis" bars show impulse responses for 75 EMDEs from local
projections model five years after the event. Dependent variable is defined as cumulative slowdown in
potential output after a recession event. Bars show coefficient estimates. Data and methodology are
detailed in box 3.1 and annex 3.4 of the June 2020 edition of
Global Economic Prospects
report. The
"Investment after epidemics" bar shows the estimated impacts two years after the four most severe
biological epidemics on output. The four epidemics considered are SARS (2002-03), MERS (2012),
Ebola (2014-15), Zika (2015-16). Swine flu (2009), which coincided with the 2008-09 global financial
crisis, is excluded to limit possible confounding effects. An episode dummy for a specific type of event
is 1 if the event occurs at least once (>=1) in a country-year pair and 0 otherwise. The sample
includes 116 economies: 30 advanced economies and 86 EMDEs.
B. Aggregates of production function-based potential growth estimates calculated using real U.S.
dollar GDP at 2010 prices and market exchange rates. Shaded area indicates pre-COVID baseline.
Sample includes 30 advanced economies and 50 EMDEs.
C. Figure shows year-on-year growth in quarterly real investment (gross fixed capital formation).
Sample includes 78 countries, consisting of 36 advanced economies and 42 EMDEs. Aggregate
growth is calculated with real investment at 2010 prices and market exchange rates as weights.
D. Figure shows the median percentage increase in wages associated with each additional year of
schooling, by country group and gender according to the 2018 edition of the
World Development
Report
.
Click here to download data and charts.
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