Article in ssrn electronic Journal · July 015 doi: 10. 2139/ssrn. 2634590 citations 32 reads 1,108 author: Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY 
RECOMMENDATIONS 
What are the actual trends in cybercrime? Is the situation 
getting worse, better or staying roughly the same over 
time? We currently have a flawed picture of the security 
of cyberspace. Instead, a more accurate picture requires 
that the numbers on the occurrence of cybercrime be 
normalized around indicators that capture the growth and 
growing importance of cyberspace. To test this proposition, 
data on various indicators of the size of the cyberspace 
were collected, with a particular focus on users, points 
of interaction and the volume of online activity. Various 
measures of the occurrence of cybercrime were examined, 
with a focus on vectors of attack, the occurrence of attack 
and the cost of attacks. In every instance, the normalized 
numbers suggest that the security of cyberspace is better 
than what is found when one looks only at the absolute 
numbers. If you take lessons from the 13 normalizations, 
you find that six (almost half) point to a situation where the 
absolute numbers show a deteriorating situation while the 
normalized numbers actually show that things are getting 
better. In another six of the tests, both numbers show 
the situation as improving, but the normalized numbers 

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GLOBAL COMMISSION ON INTERNET GOVERNANCE PAPER SERIES: NO. 16 — JuLy 2015 
18 • CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE INNOVATION • CHATHAM HOuSE
usually indicate that things are getter better sooner and 
faster compared to the absolute numbers. Finally, in the 
one case where both sets of numbers show the situation 
worsening, the absolute numbers still indicate that things 
are getting worse faster than the normalized numbers. 
Cyberspace, in other words, is more secure than is 
commonly perceived.