6
database (CBLD), our source for the coding). We code an additional twenty-seven countries not
included in the CWN sample (selected for their economic significance
and inclusion in the
CBLD).
8
The CBLD contains national central bank legislation, and was current through end-
2003 at the time the index was computed.
The CWN index has four components, relating to, respectively, appointment procedures for the
head
of the central bank, the resolution of conflict between the central bank and the executive
branch of government, the use of an explicit policy target, and rules limiting lending to
government (see Cukierman, 1992, and Cukierman, Webb, and Neyapti, 1992, for a thorough
description of the index and its subcomponents).
9
One feature of the
index is that the first and
third components are more closely related to the internal workings of the central bank (its
procedures and policies), whereas the second and fourth components deal with relations
between the central bank and the executive branch (disputes and financial relations between the
two). Table 1 presents the mean scores for each component and for the overall index, for all
countries in the sample and for two subgroups: advanced economies and developing and
emerging market economies.
10
Table 1 shows evidence of increased independence for central banks across all countries. For
developing and emerging market economies, all components have shown a statistically
significant increase since the 1980s. However, for advanced economies only the second and
fourth components (covering disputes with the executive
and lending to government,
respectively) have shown a significant increase. This owes to the fact that the scores on the first
and third components (relating to the appointment of the central bank head and the existence of
a codified objective for monetary policy, respectively) were already relatively high, and so the
recorded increase is relatively modest. Hence, the key reforms have focused on relations
between the
central bank and the executive, rather than the central bank’s own goals and
procedures. For emerging market and developing countries, on the other hand, reforms have
been more comprehensive, addressing all four areas covered by the CWN index.
Regression analysis of reforms to independence in relation to the initial conditions in each
country yields some interesting patterns. Table 2 presents OLS estimates
of the determinants
of the change in the CWN index (D.CBI) between the two time periods. The change in
independence is explained by initial period values for independence (CBI0) and inflation
(INF0), real GDP per capita (GDP0), and measures of democracy (DEMOC0), openness
(OPEN0), and the de facto exchange rate regime (REGIME0). (Higher values for the DEMOC,
OPEN, and REGIME variables represent greater democracy, openness,
and flexibility of the de
facto exchange rate regime.)
Reform appears to be related to low initial levels of CBI and high prior inflation (column (1)).
This suggests that reform has been prompted by the failure of past anti-inflation policies
8
The Appendix details our country sample.
9
We adopt the weighted version of their overall index in our analysis.
10
The country groupings follow those in the IMF’s
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