Microsoft Word Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity Is Near doc

RAND Journal of 
Economics
31.4 (Winter 2000): 674–92, http://econ.bu.edu/kortum/rje_Winter'00_Kortum.pdf. As Paul 
Gompers and Josh Lerner say, "Inflows to venture capital funds have expanded from virtually zero in the mid-
1970s....," Gompers and Lerner, 
The Venture Capital Cycle
, (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999). See also 
Paul Gompers, "Venture Capital," in B. Espen Eckbo, ed., 
Handbook of Corporate Finance: Empirical 
Corporate Finance
, in the Handbooks in Finance series (Holland: Elsevier, forthcoming), chapter 11, 2005, 
http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/espen.eckbo/PDFs/Handbookpdf/CH11-VentureCapital.pdf. 
80.
An account of how "new economy" technologies are making important transformations to "old economy" 
industries: Jonathan Rauch, "The New Old Economy: Oil, Computers, and the Reinvention of the Earth," 
Atlantic Monthly
, January 3, 2001. 
81.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.doc.gov), use the following 
site and select Table 1.1.6: http://www.bea.doc.gov/bealdn/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp?Selected=N. 
82.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.doc.gov. Data for 1920–1999: 
Population Estimates Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, "Historical National Population 
Estimates: July 1, 1900 to July I, 1999," http://www.census.gov/popest/archivesl1990s/popdockest.txt; data for 
2000–2004: http://www.census.gov/popest/states/tables/NST-EST2004-01.pdf 
83.
"The Global Economy: From Recovery to Expansion," Results from 
Global Economic Prospects 2005: Trade, 
Regionalism and Prosperity
(World Bank, 2004), 
http://globaloutlook.worldbank.org/globaloutlook/outside/globalgrowth.aspx; "World Bank: 2004 Economic 
Growth Lifts Millions from Poverty," 
Voice of America News
, http://www.voanews.com/english/2004-11-17-
voa41.cfrn. 
84.
Mark Bils and Peter Klenow, "The Acceleration in Variety Growth," 
American Economic Review
91.2 (May 
2001): 274–80, http://www.klenow.com/Acceleration.pdf. 
85.
See notes 84, 86, and 87. 
86.
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, news report, June 3, 2004. You can generate 
productivity reports at http://www.bls.gov/bls/productivity.htm. 

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87.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Major Sector Multifactor Productivity Index, Manufacturing Sector: Output per 
Hour All Persons (1996 = 100), http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/outside.jsp?survey=mp (Requires JavaScript: select 
"Manufacturing," "Output Per Hour All Persons," and starting year 1949), or http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate 
(use series "MPU300001," "AllYears," and Format 2). 
88.
George M. Scalise, Semiconductor Industry Association, in "Luncheon Address: The Industry Perspective on 
Semiconductors," 
2004 Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and 
Questions—Report of a Symposium (2004)
(National Academies Press, 2004), p. 40, 
http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309092744/html/index.html. 
89.
Data from Kurzweil Applied Intelligence, now part of ScanSoft (formerly Kurzweil Computer Products). 
90.
eMarketer, "E-Business in 2003: How the Internet Is Transforming Companies, Industries, and the Economy—
a Review in Numbers," February 2003; "US B2C E-Commerce to Top $90 Billion in 2003," April 30, 2003, 
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?1002207; and "Worldwide B2B E-Commerce to Surpass $1 Trillion 
By Year's End," March 19, 2003, http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?1002125. 
91.
The patents used in this chart are, as described by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, "patents for 
inventions," also known as "utility" patents. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, Table of Annual U.S. 
Patent Activity, http://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/ac/ido/oeip/taf/h_counts.htm. 
92.
The doubling time for IT's share of the economy is twenty-three years. U.S. Department of Commerce, 
Economics and Statistics Administration, "The Emerging Digital Economy," figure 2, 
http://www.technology.gov/digeconomy/emerging.htm. 
93.
The doubling time for U.S. education expenditures per capita is twenty-three years. National Center for 
Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 2002, http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2003/ 
digest02/tables/dt030.asp. 
94.
The United Nations estimated that the total global equity market capitalization in 2000 was thirty-seven trillion 
dollars. United Nations, "Global Finance Profile," 
Report of the High-Level Panel of Financing for 
Development
, June 2001, http://www.un.org/reports/financing/profile.htm. 
If our perception of future growth rates were to increase (compared to current expectations) by an annual 
compounded rate of as little as 2 percent, and considering an annual discount rate (for discounting future 
values today) of 6 percent, then considering the increased present value resulting from only twenty years of 
compounded and discounted future (additional) growth, present values should triple. As the subsequent 
dialogue points out, this analysis does not take into consideration the likely increase in the discount rate that 
would result from such a perception of increased future growth.