e a r t h q u a k e
35
BOSNIA AND
BOSNIA AND
BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
HERZEGOVINA
HERZEGOVINA
CROATIA
CRO
CROATIA
ATIA
SERBIA
SERBIA
SERBIA
CHECHNYA
CHECHNY
CHECHNYAA
KAZAKHSTAN
K
KAZAKHSTAN
AZAKHSTAN
AZERBAIJAN
A
AZERBAIJAN
ZERBAIJAN
MONTENEGRO
MONTENEGRO
MONTENEGRO
GEORGIA
GEORGIA
GEORGIA
MACEDONIA
MA
MACEDONIA
CEDONIA
BULGARIA
BUL
BULGARIA
GARIA
UZBEKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
KYRGYZST
KYRGYZST
UZBEKIST
AN
AN
AN
KYRGYZSTAN
ALBANIA
ALBANIA
ALBANIA
TURKEY
TURKE
TURKEYY
TURKMENISTAN
TURKMENIST
TURKMENISTAN
AN
ARMENIA
ARMENIA
ARMENIA
TA JIKISTAN
T
TA JIKISTAN
A JIKISTAN
CYPRUS
C
CYPRUS
SYRIA
SYRIA
SYRIA
YPRUS
LEBANON
LEBANON
LEBANON
IRAQ
IRA
IRAQ
Q
IRAN
IRAN
IRAN
AFGHANISTAN
AFGHANIST
AFGHANISTAN
AN
PAKISTA
P
P
AN
AKISTAN
AKIST
Earthquake Zone
chaos eventually ran the entire length of the sector and engulfed even coun
tries not adjacent to the front line.
The region from Yugoslavia to Afghanistan and Pakistan had largely
been locked into place during the Cold War. There was isolated movement,
such as when Iran moved from being pro-American to being both anti
Soviet and anti-American, or when the
Russians invaded Afghanistan, or
the Iran–Iraq war. But in a strange way, the region was stabilized by the
Cold War. No matter how many internal conflicts there were, they never
grew into full-blown, cross-border crises.
With
the Soviets gone, the region destabilized dramatically. This is pri
marily a Muslim region—one of three major Muslim regions in the world.
There is North Africa, there is the Muslim region in Southeast Asia, and
then there is this vast, multinational, highly divergent region that runs from
Yugoslavia
to Afghanistan, and south into the Arabian Peninsula (see map,
page 36). This is certainly not a single region in many senses, but we are treat
ing it as such because it was the southern front of the Soviet encirclement.
It’s important to remember that the demarcation line of the Cold War
ran straight through this Muslim region. Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turk
menistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan were all predominantly Muslim re
publics that were part of the Soviet Union. There
were Muslim parts of
the Russian Federation as well, such as Chechnya.
This entire region is historically unstable. Traversing the region are the
great trade and invasion routes used by conquerors from Alexander the
Great to the British. The region has always been a geopolitical flash point,
but the end of the Cold War truly ignited a powder keg. When the Soviet
Union fell, its six Muslim republics suddenly became independent. Arab
countries to the south either lost their patron (Iraq and Syria)
or lost their
enemy (the Saudis and other Gulf states). India lost its patron, and Pakistan
suddenly felt liberated from the Indian threat—at least temporarily. The en-
tire system of international relations was thrown up in the air. What little
was solid dissolved.
The Soviets withdrew from the Caucasus and Central Asia in 1992. Like
a tide receding, this revealed nations that hadn’t been free for a century or
more, that had no tradition
of self- government and, in some cases, no func-
tioning economy. At the same time, American interest in the region de-
clined. After Operation Desert Storm in 1991, American focus on places
like Afghanistan seemed useless. The Cold War was over. There was no
longer a strategic
threat to American interests, and the region was free to
evolve on its own.
36
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