The Next 100 Years

C H A P T E R 2
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T h e U . S . – J i h a d i s t Wa r
T
he American Age began in December 1991, when the Soviet Union 
collapsed, leaving the United States as the only global power in the 
world. But the twenty- first century truly began on September 11, 
2001, ten years later, when planes slammed into the World Trade Center 
and the Pentagon. This was the first real test of the American Age. It is de­
batable whether the United States has actually won the U.S.–jihadist war— 
but it has certainly achieved its strategic goals. And it is also clear that the 
war is, as all wars do, moving toward an end of sorts. 
People talk about “the long war,” and the idea that the United States and 
Muslims will be fighting for a century. As is usually the case, what appears 
permanent is only a passing phase. Consider the twenty- year perspective we 
have been using. Conflict may continue, but the strategic challenge to 
American power is coming to an end. Al Qaeda has failed in its goals. The 
United States has succeeded, not so much in winning the war as in prevent­
ing the Islamists from winning, and, from a geopolitical perspective, that is 
good enough. The twenty- first century has begun with an American success 
that on the surface looks like not only a defeat but a deep political and 
moral embarrassment. 

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Al Qaeda’s goal in 2001 was not simply to conduct an attack on the 
United States. Its goal was to conduct an attack that would demonstrate 
America’s weakness and al Qaeda’s strength. Revealing America’s weakness, 
al Qaeda believed, would undermine governments in the Islamic world that 
relied on their relationship with the United States to stabilize their regimes, 
in countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Indonesia. Al Qaeda 
wanted to overthrow these governments because it knew that it could not 
achieve its goals unless it had control of a nation- state other than Af ghan ­
istan, which was too weak and isolated to serve as more than a temporary 
base. 
The collapse of the Soviet Union obviously had massive effects on the 
international system. One was particularly surprising. A powerful Soviet 
Union and a powerful United States had actually stabilized the international 
system, creating a balance between superpowers. This was particularly true 
along the frontier of the Soviet empire, where both sides were poised for 
war. Europe, for example, was frozen into place by the Cold War. The 
slightest movement could have led to war, so neither the Soviets nor the 
Americans permitted such movement. The most interesting features of 
the Cold War, in fact, were all the wars that didn’t happen. There was no in­
vasion of Germany by the Soviets. There was no thrust to the Persian Gulf. 
Above all, there was no nuclear holocaust. 
It is important to scrutinize the last twenty years. They are the founda­
tion of what’s to come in the next hundred years—and that is why I’ll spend 
more time in this chapter talking about the past instead of the future. 
Think of the Soviet collapse as a giant tug-of-war in which one side sud­
denly weakened and let go of the rope. The side still holding the rope 
won, but lost its balance, and therefore the triumph was mixed with mas­
sive confusion and disruption. The rope, which had been locked into 
place by the two sides, came loose and started behaving in unpredictable 
ways. This was particularly true along the boundaries of the two blocs. 
Some changes were peaceful. Germany reunited and the Baltic states 
reemerged, as did Ukraine and Belarus. Czechoslovakia had its velvet di­
vorce, splitting into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Other changes were 

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more violent. Romania underwent a tumultuous internal revolution, and 
Yugoslavia went completely to pieces. 
Indeed, of all the countries along the border of the former Soviet Union, 
Yugoslavia was the most artificial. It was not a nation-state, but a region of 
hostile and diverse nations, ethnicities, and religions. Invented by the vic­
tors of World War I, Yugoslavia was like a cage for some of the most vicious 
rivalries in Europe. The victors theorized that in order to avert a war in the 
Balkans, an entity should be created that made them all part of a single 
country. It was an interesting theory. But Yugoslavia was an archaeological 
dig of fossilized nations left over from ancient conquests, still clinging to 
their distinct identities. 
Historically, the Balkans had been a flash point in Europe. This was the 
Romans’ road to the Middle East, and the Turks’ road into Europe. World 
War I started in the Balkans. Each conqueror left behind a nation or a reli­
gion, and each one of these detested the other. Each warring group had 
committed atrocities of monumental proportions against the others, and 
every one of these atrocities was remembered as if it had happened yester­
day. This is not a forgive-and-forget region. 
Yugoslavia shattered during World War II, with Croats siding with Ger­
many and Serbs with the Allies. It was subsequently pulled together by the