PART 3
OUTLOOK
AND EMERGING ISSUES
expected to increase by 30 percent and 13 percent,
respectively, in nominal terms by 2030, as a result
of strong global demand. High feed prices could
also have an impact on the species composition
in aquaculture, with a shift towards species
requiring less feed, cheaper feed, or no feed at all.
The higher prices at the production level, coupled
with high demand of fish for human consumption,
will stimulate an estimated 22 percent
increase in
the average price of internationally traded fish by
2030 relative to 2018.
However, in real terms (i.e. adjusted for inflation),
all average prices are expected to decline slightly
over the projection period, while remaining
relatively high. For individual fishery commodities,
price volatility could be more pronounced
as a result of supply or demand fluctuations.
Moreover, because aquaculture is expected to
represent a higher share of world fish supply, it
could have a stronger impact on price formation in
national and international fish markets.
Consumption
The share of fish production destined for human
consumption is
expected to continue to grow,
reaching 89 percent by 2030. The main factors
behind this increase will be a combination of
high demand resulting from rising incomes
and urbanization, linked with the expansion of
fish production, improvements in post-harvest
methods and distribution channels expanding the
commercialization of fish. Demand will also be
stimulated by changes in dietary trends, pointing
towards more variety in the typology of food
consumed, and a greater focus on better health,
nutrition
and diet, with fish playing a key role
in this regard. World food fish
30
consumption
in 2030 is projected to be 18 percent (28 million
tonnes live weight equivalent) higher than in
2018. Overall, its average annual growth rate will
be slower in the projection period (1.4 percent)
than in the period 2007–2018 (2.6 percent),
mainly because of reduced production growth,
higher fish prices and a deceleration in
population growth. About 71 percent of the
world’s fish available for human consumption
in 2030 (183 million tonnes) will be consumed
in Asia, while the lowest quantities will be
30
See note 12 on p. 65.
consumed in Oceania and Latin America.
Total food fish
consumption is expected to
increase in all regions and subregions by 2030
in comparison with 2018, with higher growth
rates projected in Latin America (33 percent),
Africa (27 percent), Oceania (22 percent) and Asia
(19 percent).
In per capita terms, world fish consumption
is projected to reach 21.5 kg in 2030, up from
20.5 kg in 2018. However, the average annual
growth rate of per capita food fish consumption
will decline from 1.3 percent in 2007–2018
to 0.4 percent in 2019–2030. Per capita fish
consumption will increase in all regions except
Africa (with a decline of 3 percent). The highest
growth rates are projected for Asia (9 percent),
Europe (7 percent),
and Latin America and
Oceania (6 percent each). Despite these regional
trends, the overall tendencies in quantities and
variety of fish consumed will vary among and
within countries. In 2030, about 59 percent
of the fish available for human consumption
is expected to originate from aquaculture
production, up from 52 percent in 2018 (
Figure 56
).
Farmed fish will continue to meet the demand
for, and consumption of, species that have
shifted from being primarily wild-caught to
being primarily aquaculture-produced.
In Africa, per capita fish consumption is
expected to decrease slightly by 0.2 percent per
year up to 2030, declining from 10.0 kg in 2018
to 9.8 kg in 2030. The decline will be greater in
sub-Saharan Africa (from 8.9 kg to 8.1 kg in the
same period). The main
reason for this decline
is the growth of Africa’s population outpacing
the growth in supply. Increasing domestic
production (by 13 percent over the period
2019–2030) and higher fish imports will not
be sufficient to meet the region’s growing
demand. The share of imports of fish for
human consumption in total food fish supply
is expected to grow from 37 percent in 2018
to 40 percent in 2030. However, this increase,
together with the expansion of aquaculture
production (by 48 percent in 2030 compared
with 2018) and capture fisheries production (by
5 percent), will only partially
compensate for the
population growth. One of the few exceptions
will be Egypt, as the country is expected
to further increase its already substantial
| 170 |
THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
2020
aquaculture production (up 42 percent in 2030
compared with 2018). The projected decline in
per capita fish consumption in Africa raises
food-security concerns because of the region’s
high prevalence of undernourishment (FAO
et al.
, 2019) and the importance of fish in total
animal protein intake in many African countries
(see the section Fish consumption, p. 65). The
decline may also
weaken the ability of more
fish-dependent countries to meet nutrition
targets (2.1 and 2.2) of SDG 2 (End hunger,
achieve food security and improved nutrition
and promote sustainable agriculture).
Trade
Fish and fish products will continue to be highly
traded. It is projected that about 36 percent of
total fish production will be exported in 2030
in the form of various products for human
consumption or non-edible goods. In quantity
terms, world trade in fish for human consumption
is expected to grow by 9 percent in the projection
period, and to reach more than 54 million tonnes
in live weight equivalent in 2030 and 47 million
tonnes if trade within the European Union is
excluded (
Table 18
). Overall, the average annual
FIGURE 56
INCREASING ROLE OF AQUACULTURE
From
capture fisheries
From aquaculture
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