PART 3
OUTLOOK AND EMERGING ISSUES
FISHERIES AND
AQUACULTURE
PROJECTIONS
Note
:
At the time of writing (March 2020), the
COVID-19 pandemic has affected most countries
in the world, with severe impacts on the global
economy and the food production and distribution
sector, including fisheries and aquaculture.
FAO is monitoring the situation closely to assess
the overall impact of the pandemic on fisheries
and aquaculture production, consumption and
trade. The following projections are based on
the assumption that there will be a significant
disruption in the short run for production,
consumption and trade, with a recovery in late
2020 or early 2021. Adjustments will be introduced
in future revisions of the projections as impact
assessments become available.
This section presents the medium-term
outlook using the FAO fish model (FAO, 2012,
pp. 186–193), developed in 2010 to shed light
on potential future developments in fisheries
and aquaculture. The fish model has links to,
but is not integrated into, the Aglink-Cosimo
model used to generate the ten-year-horizon
agricultural projections
elaborated jointly by
the OECD and FAO each year and published
in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
(OECD/FAO, 2020). The FAO fish model uses
a set of macroeconomic assumptions and
selected prices used to generate the agricultural
projections. The fish projections presented in
this section have been obtained through an ad
hoc analysis carried out by FAO for the years
2019–2030.
The future of fisheries and aquaculture will
be influenced by many different factors and
interconnected challenges of global,
regional and
local relevance. Population and economic growth,
together with urbanization, technological
developments and dietary diversification,
are expected to create an expansion in food
demand, and in particular for animal products,
including fish. The projections illustrated in
this section depict an outlook for fisheries and
aquaculture in terms of projected production,
utilization, trade, prices and key issues that
might influence future supply and demand.
These results are not forecasts, but rather
plausible scenarios that provide insight into how
these sectors may develop in the light of a set
of specific assumptions regarding: the future
macroeconomic environment; international
trade rules and tariffs;
the frequency and
effects of events on resources; the absence of
other severe climate effects such as tsunamis,
tropical storms (cyclones, hurricanes and
typhoons), floods and emerging fish diseases;
fisheries management measures, including catch
limitations; and the absence of market shocks.
In view of the major role of China in fisheries
and aquaculture, the assumptions consider policy
developments
in China, which are expected
to continue along the path outlined by its
Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) (see FAO,
2018a, Box 31, p. 183) towards more sustainable
and environmentally friendly fisheries and
aquaculture, away from the past emphasis on
increasing production.
Production
On the basis of the assumptions used, total
fish production (excluding aquatic plants) is
expected to expand from 179 million tonnes
in 2018 to 204 million tonnes in 2030 (
Table 17
).
In absolute terms, the overall increase up
to 2030 is 15 percent (26 million tonnes)
over 2018, a slowdown compared with the
PART 3
OUTLOOK AND
EMERGING ISSUES
| 164 |
THE STATE OF WORLD
FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
2020
27 percent growth in the period 2007–2018.
Aquaculture will continue to be the driving
force behind the growth in global fish
production, extending a decades-old trend
(
Figure 51
). Aquaculture production is projected
to reach 109 million tonnes in 2030, an
increase of 32 percent (26 million tonnes) over
2018. Yet, the average annual growth rate of
aquaculture should slow from 4.6 percent in
2007–2018 to 2.3 percent in 2019–2030 (
Figure 52
).
A number of factors should contribute to this
slowdown.
28
These include: broader adoption
and enforcement of environmental regulations;
reduced availability of water and suitable
production locations; increasing outbreaks of
aquatic animal diseases related to intensive
production practices; and decreasing aquaculture
productivity gains. The projected deceleration
of China’s aquaculture
production is expected
to be partially compensated by an increase
in production in other countries. As initiated
with China’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan
(2016–2020), the country’s policies in the next
28
It is important to note that a slowdown in growth rate does not
indicate a decrease in production. Expressed in percentage terms,
growth rates are usually higher when the calculation starts from a low
base, and decline as the size of the base grows.
decade are expected to continue the transition
from extensive to intensive aquaculture,
aiming to better integrate production with
the environment through the adoption of
ecologically sound technological innovations,
with capacity reduction, followed by faster
growth. However, the
share of farmed species in
global fishery production (for food and non-food
uses), is projected to grow from 46 percent in
2018 to 53 percent in 2030 (
Figure 53
).
Asia will continue to dominate the aquaculture
sector (
Figure 54
) and will be responsible for more
than 89 percent of the increase in production
by 2030, making the continent account for
89 percent of 2030 global aquaculture production.
While China will remain the world’s leading
producer, its share in total production will
decrease from 58 percent in 2018 to 56 percent
in 2030. Overall, aquaculture production is
projected to continue growing on all continents,
with variations in the range of species and
products across countries and regions. The sector
is expected to expand most in Africa (up
48 percent) and in Latin America (up 33 percent).
The growth in Africa’s
aquaculture production
will be driven by the additional culturing
capacity put in place in recent years, as well as
THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
2020
FIGURE 51
WORLD CAPTURE FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION, 1980–2030
Aquaculture
Capture fisheries
0
50
100
150
200
250
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: 
