The magazine of the european research area European Commission Copenhagen, a missed chance?

http://ec.europa.eu/research/fch/

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SPECIAL REPORT

 

CLIM

A

T

E

14 research

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eu No. 63 | APRIL 2010

I

n The Age of Stupid, an environmental 

film released in 2009, Pete Postlethwaite 

plays the role of the sole survivor of 

a climate disaster in the year 2055. He 

looks out from the top floor of a skyscraper 

at a devastated world, surrounded by classical 

sculptures and cultural treasures rescued 

from the huge floods, and asks himself why 

mankind had not acted half a century earlier 

to  avert the already looming catastrophe. 

Although the film is very effective at causing 

the audience to imagine possible future climate 

events, many scientists would certainly take 

issue with the date chosen for the Armageddon.  

The end of the world in 2055?

In its fourth report, published in 2007, the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

(IPCC) presents climate models that would 

indeed have embarrassed the film’s director. 

These show a range of temperature increases 

based on specific emission conditions deter-

mined by factors such as the success of envi-

ronmental and clean energy policies and 

demographic growth. A model is a computer 

programme that simulates climate change from 

a precise point and on the basis of a series of 

scenarios linked to emission conditions. The 

more complex the data, the more complex the 

CLIMATE MODELS

The tools 

of 

diagnosis

At a time when the wildest disaster scenarios 

are circulating, the very best climate forecasting 

techniques are needed if we are to make the right 

decisions. Today, a major new climate model is 

making it possible to dispel a number of uncertainties 

regarding Europe’s climate in the 21

st

 century and 

providing us with the most precise possible picture 

of the phenomena that are likely to affect us.