AT: No Escalation Middle East escalation likely-narrowly avoided in the past
W Andrew Terril 09 (Research Professor of National Security Affairs, ESCALATION AND INTRAWAR DETERRENCE¶ DURING LIMITED WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub941.pdf , September 2009)
The case studies of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the 1991 Gulf War provide valuable examples of the processes of escalation and intrawar deterrence that can occur in a regional conflict environment. It is important to understand how events unfolded during these conflicts to consider ways in which intrawar deterrent strategies might go well or poorly in future conflicts. It is also especially important to realize that any case study is limited in value by the special circumstances under which it occurred. Actions that occurred during these wars are important because they display a range of problems that can develop under similar circumstances or conflicts. Sweeping generalizations cannot be drawn from case studies such as these, although ways to think about future conflicts may be informed by these studies. It might also be noted that these cases must be understood in all their depth and nuance. Any effort to draw simple conclusions from a shallow understanding of these wars or to apply their lessons mechanistically is likely to lead to some flawed conclusions and results. Analogies have been consistently overused in the formation of U.S. policy often to the deep regret of the policymakers. In both of the conflicts under examination, the combatants did not use WMD, but in neither conflict was this restraint an inevitable result and some luck was involved in the outcomes. If the various journalistic and academic accounts can be believed, Israel may have come close to using nuclear weapons, but pulled back from this option because of the solid judgment of most of the Israeli top leadership and also because of the vast improvement of Israel’s battlefield situation after October 14. Conversely, Saddam Hussein may have shown restraint because he had faith in his strategy to achieve his strategic objectives by conventional means. Saddam was deterred by US threats and probable belief that the US was likely to follow through on those threats but a more desperate leader may have responded in a different way. Thus, Saddam was prevented from using CBW by coalition threats but also by his own confidence in Iraq’s conventional capabilities and a belief that the United States could not accept the type of prolonged ground war that he saw as required to oust the Iraqi regime. Saddam thus feared that the use of chemical or biological weapons would become a way to escalate the conflict from a level where he could remain in power to a new level where he could not. In the future, it is at least possible that the United States will find itself in armed conflict against weaker nations that nevertheless possess WMD, perhaps including nuclear weapons. It is also possible that regional states using WMD will wage war against each other (for example, in South Asia). Some such conflicts may have a greater bearing on U.S. interests than others, but any nuclear exchange anywhere is of concern to global security. The use of biological weapons in combat would present its own special kind of nightmare should such actions serve as an example for other countries, and perhaps open a new and more hideous chapter in the history of warfare. Under these circumstances, wars involving vital U.S. interests (such as the 1991 Gulf War) may include an effort to engage in intrawar deterrence, but the confidence in this approach will have to be limited by the knowledge that escalation may become uncontrollable.
AT-Not Cost Competitive
Prices are competitive- algae biofuel prices are dropping but fossil fuels’ are rising
Praiwan, Yuthana 9/4/12
McClatchy - Tribune Business News Author “PTT pins hopes on algae-based biofuel” http://search.proquest.com/docview/1037685639/5390BAAC80A448FPQ/5?accountid=35968
Sept. 04--National oil conglomerate PTT Plc expects algae-based biofuel will be commercially viable by 2017 at the price of US$150 per barrel, says chief executive Pailin Chuchottaworn.¶ Within that date algae-based petrol could be able to compete with fossil oil, which is expected to hit $150 per barrel, up from this year's average of $110, Dr Pailin told a forum of the second Asia-Oceania Algae Innovation Summit held in Bangkok yesterday.¶ "Although the price of algae biofuel is two to three times higher than fossil fuels, in the future we are going to have economy-of-scale production and appropriate strains for biofuel production," said Dr Pailin.¶ PTT has teamed up with leading universities, the Thailand Institute of Scientific and Technology Research (TISTR) and the National Science and Technology Development Agency developing algae biofuel since 2008.¶ That year saw the global oil price skyrocketing above $140 a barrel, prompting PTT to come up with a milestone in the developing algae plantations and facilities under the so-called Think Algae Project in league with leading universities and scientific organisations.¶ In 2010, the alliance selected more than 1,000 algae strains from domestic fresh water sources as well as the sea. The selection has been shortlisted to only 14 appropriate strains for further development.¶ Dr Pailin said last year PTT allocated 250 million baht for an algae plantation in Rangsit with targeted production of 100,000 litres. The site is intended to be a regional centre for algae cultivation.¶ Oil extracted from algae in the lab is around 20-30% of its total dry weight, he said, adding that research will focus not only on biofuel but also on by-products such as animal feed, food supplements, antioxidants and pigments.¶ "We are more than half way through searching for the good potential of algae strains," said Dr Pailin.¶ He said algae is the best choice for developing alternative fuels in the future and will be the next generation alternative fuel due to the small size of the plantations and non-expropriable to food cultivation areas.¶ PTT's algae biofuel research and development project has been allocated a budget of 20 billion baht between 2012 and 2016. The R&D budget accounts for 3% of the group's capital expenditure of 720 billion baht during the five-year period.
Algae is affordable and key to national defense
Associated Press 7’
The Associated Press, “Oil from Algae? Scientists seek green gold” http://www.nbcnews.com/id/22027663/ns/business-going_green/t/oil-algae-scientists-seek-green-gold/#.U8bJZhb39G4
The federal government halted its main algae research program nearly a decade ago, but technology has advanced and oil prices have climbed since then, and an Energy Department lab announced in late October that it was partnering with Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil company, in the hunt for better strains of algae.¶ "It's not backyard inventors at this point at all," said George Douglas, a spokesman for the Energy Department's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. "It's folks with experience to move it forward."¶ Advertise¶ A New Zealand company demonstrated a Range Rover powered by an algae biodiesel blend last year, but experts say it will be many years before algae is commercially viable. Ruan expects some demonstration plants to be built within a few years.¶ Converting algae oil into biodiesel uses the same process that turns vegetable oils into biodiesel. But the cost of producing algae oil is hard to pin down because nobody's running the process start to finish other than in a laboratory, Douglas said. One Pentagon estimate puts it at more than $20 per gallon, but other experts say it's not clear cut.¶ If it can be brought down, algae's advantages include growing much faster and in less space than conventional energy crops. An acre of corn can produce about 20 gallons of oil per year, Ruan said, compared with a possible 15,000 gallons of oil per acre of algae. An algae farm could be located almost anywhere. It wouldn't require converting cropland from food production to energy production. It could use sea water. And algae can gobble up pollutants from sewage and power plants.¶ The Pentagon's research arm, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, is funding research into producing jet fuel from plants, including algae. DARPA is already working with Honeywell's UOP, General Electric Inc. and the University of North Dakota. In November, it requested additional research proposals.¶ As the single largest energy consumer in the world, the Defense Department needs new, affordable sources of jet fuel, said Douglas Kirkpatrick, DARPA's biofuels program manager.¶ "Our definition of affordable is less than $5 per gallon, and what we're really looking for is less than $3 per gallon, and we believe that can be done," he said.¶ Des Plaines, Ill.-based UOP — which has developed a "green diesel" process that converts vegetable oils into fuels that are more like conventional petroleum products than standard biodiesel — already has successfully converted soybean oil into jet fuel, Holmgren said. And the company has partnered with Arizona State University to obtain algae oil to test for the DARPA project, she said.
OMEGA is cost effective and replaces fossil fuels
Sidonie Sawyer 07/30/2013
The Huffington Post, Newspaper editor, French-American Sidonie Sawyer worked as a writer for a decade at the Miami Herald, and as an Editor for several news ventures after that. Her more recent position as an Editor-in-chief for a small local newspaper finds her now in North Florida. “Is (Yucky) Algae the Future of Biofuels?” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sidonie-sawyer/is-yucky-algae-the-future_b_3673050.html
The world's algae can provide a reliable and efficient source of power and energy, without the side effects that other fuels have on our environment, and on our wallet.¶ After one more disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, leading to more oil leaks on our shores, scientists are insisting again that we finally accept other sources of energy and use what comes naturally to us: algae. It's plentiful, organic, cheap and always there. A hope for a cleaner future.¶ NASA scientist Dr. Jonathan Trent has created the OMEGA Method to grow algae specifically for biofuel (OMEGA stands for Offshore Membrane Enclosure for Growing Algae). Several countries are already spending big budget monies on biofuels, as their governments believe this is a way and a target for the only cleaner future they can foresee, and the way to shrinking dependency on oil and oil-producing countries.¶ Dr. Trent states that "Biofuels could be a long term sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, but only if they are produced in sufficient quantities to meet the demand, with a price at the pump that people will tolerate, and without competing with agriculture for water, fertilizer, or land."¶ So why is our space agency interested in algae? NASA has spent a lot of time and money on life-support systems that would allow humans to go places totally inhospitable, such as outer-space, the Moon or the planet Mars. In case we ever need to go there, and stay.¶ The OMEGA system is made of flexible tubes, looking like giant plastic straws floating in seawater, using energy from the sun. The fuel the algae produces could someday in the near future reduce the emission of green house gas, replace fossil fuels, and increasing national security in the process. A vast and uplifting challenge.¶ And by the way, these microscopic algae are among the fastest growing plants on the planet. OMEGA farms could be the answer.
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