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commodity and foreign exchange is likely to take slightly longer even though TRs in those asset
classes should be operational by end-2012….. Authorities’ effective and practical access to data is
being addressed in the new CPSS-IOSCO work-stream, which aims to be substantially complete by
end-2012. The objective of this initiative is to facilitate authorities’ effective and practical access to
data, while taking into account confidentiality and security of data.”
The next step is to move standardised contracts into CCP clearing and the FSB data is much less
encouraging about progress to date. Only 50% of interest rate swaps are cleared – despite having
the highest proportion of plain vanilla contracts. The proportion of CDS that are cleared is quite
small. The data below is adjusted to avoid the double counting of both sides of a contract. But
there is a stark message: if the great bulk of existing OTC derivative contracts is moved to a CCP-
cleared basis, then the scale of CCPs can be expected to triple from today. If regulatory measures
such as a possible exemption of derivatives from the risk of bailing-in of failing banks make
derivatives even more attractive, then the scale of CCPs will rise dramatically.
11
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Central counterparties and risks to financial stability
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However, there is something of an offsetting trend: IRS Compression. Compression involves the
tearing up of matched trades or trades that do not contribute risk to a dealer’s portfolio. Great
strides continue to be made in compression in IRS which began in 2003 among groups of banks
organized by TriOptima. In 2010, compression began in earnest at LCH.Clearnet’s SwapClear.
According to TriOptima, by year-end 2011, IRS compression has reached a gross amount of $240
trillion, including $64 trillion in 2011 alone
8
. Gross compression figures need to be reduced by
50%, which produces cumulative net compression of $120 trillion and 2011 net compression of
$32 trillion. IRS compression for the first four months of 2012 totalled $33 trillion on a gross basis.
As explained in ISDA’s recent paper, “Interest Rate Compression: A Progress Report”, the industry
is devoting more resources and more effective techniques to IRS compression. It is hoped these
improved results will enable adjusted notionals to continue the decline experienced since 2007.
Because the OTC derivatives market is global, the data are usually presented on a global basis,
rather than broken down into regions. However, the BIS produce statistics that underline the
importance of the euro in the interest rate sector – by far the biggest. The euro sector is bigger
than that of the US dollar, underlining the significance of a market that in this sector alone is about
80% of euro area GDP. However, euro-area CCPs are active in clearing trades in many currencies so
their systemic significance is even higher.
8
TriResolve reconciles approximately 75% of all non-cleared OTC derivative transactions globally on its service. triResolve has a diverse
range of global clients including investment banks, asset managers, hedge funds, energy houses and asset servicing firms, reconciling a
wide range of OTC derivative asset classes including both vanilla and structured trades. Currently TriOptima offers triReduce Rates
termination cycles in 25 currencies with over 200 regional and global institutions participating worldwide.
http://www.trioptima.com/resource-center/statistics/triResolve.html
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