Microsoft Word Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity Is Near doc

 
Farsighted Evolution.
There are many ramifications of the increasing order and complexity that have resulted from 
biological evolution and its continuation through technology. Consider the boundaries of observation. Early biological 
life could observe local events several millimeters away, using chemical gradients. When sighted animals evolved, 
they were able to observe events that were miles away. With the invention of the telescope, humans could see other 
galaxies millions of light-years away. Conversely, using microscopes, they could also see cellular-size structures. 
Today humans armed with contemporary technology can see to the edge of the observable universe, a distance of more 
than thirteen billion light-years, and down to quantum-scale subatomic particles. 
Consider the duration of observation. Single-cell animals could remember events for seconds, based on chemical 
reactions. Animals with brains could remember events for days. Primates with culture could pass down information 
through several generations. Early human civilizations with oral histories were able to preserve stories for hundreds of 
years. With the advent of written language the permanence extended to thousands of years. 
As one of many examples of the acceleration of the technology paradigm-shift rate, it took about a half century for 
the late-nineteenth-century invention of the telephone to reach significant levels of usage (see the figure below).
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In comparison, the late-twentieth-century adoption of the cell phone took only a decade.
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Overall we see a smooth acceleration in the adoption rates of communication technologies over the past century.
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As discussed in the previous chapter, the overall rate of adopting new paradigms, which parallels the rate of 
technological progress, is currently doubling every decade. That is, the time to adopt new paradigms is going down by 
half each decade. At this rate, technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent (in the linear view) 
to two hundred centuries of progress (at the rate of progress in 2000).
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