Microsoft Word Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity Is Near doc

 
Still, you represent only a tiny fraction of the available matter and energy. Keeping you biological won't 
appreciably change the order of magnitude of matter and energy available to the Singularity. It will be well 
worth it to maintain the biological heritage. 
G
EORGE 
2048:
 
Absolutely. 
R
AY
:
 
Just like today we seek to preserve the rain forest and the diversity of species. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
That's just what I was afraid of I mean, we're doing such a wonderful job with the rain forest. I think we 
still have a little bit of it left. We'll end up like those endangered species. 
N
ED
:
 Or extinct ones. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
And there's not just me. How about all the stuff I use? I go through a lot of stuff. 
G
EORGE 
2048:
 
That's not a problem, we'll just recycle all your stuff. We'll create the environments you need as you 
need them. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
Oh, I'll be in virtual reality? 
R
AY
:
 
No, actually, foglet reality. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
I'll be in a fog? 
R
AY
:
 
No, no, foglets. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
Excuse me? 
R
AY
:
 
I'll explain later in the book. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
Well, give me a hint. 
R
AY
:
 
Foglets are nanobots—robots the size of blood cells—that can connect themselves to replicate any physical 
structure. Moreover, they can direct visual and auditory information in such a way as to bring the morphing 
qualities of virtual reality into real reality.
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M
OLLY 
2004:
 
I'm sorry I asked. But, as I think about it, I want more than just my stuff. I want all the animals and 
plants, too. Even if I don't get to see and touch them all, I like to know they're there. 
G
EORGE 
2048:
 
But nothing will be lost. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
I know you keep saying that. But I mean actually there—you know, as in biological reality. 
R
AY
:
 
Actually, the entire biosphere is less than one millionth of the matter and energy in the solar system. 
C
HARLES
:
 It includes a lot of the carbon. 
R
AY
:
 
It's still worth keeping all of it to make sure we haven't lost anything. 
G
EORGE 
2048:
 
That has been the consensus for at least several years now. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
So, basically, I'll have everything I need at my fingertips? 
G
EORGE 
2048:
 
Indeed. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
Sounds like King Midas. You know, everything he touched turned to gold. 

---

N
ED
:
 Yes, and as you will recall he died of starvation as a result. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
Well, if I do end up going over to the other side, with all of that vast expanse of subjective time, I think 
I'll die of boredom. 
G
EORGE 
2048:
 
Oh, that could never happen. I will make sure of it. 

---

C H A P T E R T W O
A Theory of Technological Evolution 
The Law of Accelerating Returns 
The further backward you look, the further forward you can see. 
—W
INSTON 
C
HURCHILL
Two billion years ago, our ancestors were microbes; a half-billion years ago, fish; a hundred million years 
ago, something like mice; ten million years ago, arboreal apes; and a million years ago, proto-humans 
puzzling out the taming of fire. Our evolutionary lineage is marked by mastery of change. In our time, the 
pace is quickening. 
—C
ARL 
S
AGAN
Our sole responsibility is to produce something smarter than we are; any problems beyond that are not ours to 
solve....[T]here are no hard problems, only problems that are hard to a certain level of intelligence. Move the 
smallest bit upwards [in level of intelligence], and some problems will suddenly move from "impossible" to 
"obvious." Move a substantial degree upwards, and all of them will become obvious. 
—E
LIEZER 
S.
Y
UDNOWSKY
,
S
TARING 
I
NTO 
T
HE 
S
INGULARITY
,
1996 
"The future can't be predicted" is a common refrain....But ... when [this perspective] is wrong, it is profoundly 
wrong. 
—J
OHN 
S
MART
1 
he ongoing acceleration of technology is the implication and inevitable result of what I call the law of 
accelerating returns, which describes the acceleration of the pace of and the exponential growth of the products 
of an evolutionary process. These products include, in particular, information-bearing technologies such as 
computation, and their acceleration extends substantially beyond the predictions made by what has become known as 
Moore's Law. The Singularity is the inexorable result of the law of accelerating returns, so it is important that we 
examine the nature of this evolutionary process.