Microsoft Word Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity Is Near doc

The Fermi Paradox Revisited.
Recall that biological evolution is measured in millions and billions of years. So if 
there are other civilizations out there, they would be spread out in terms of development by huge spans of time. The 
SETI assumption implies that there should be billions of ETIs (among all the galaxies), so there should be billions that 
lie far ahead of us in their technological progress. Yet it takes only a few centuries at most from the advent of 
computation for such civilizations to expand outward at at least light speed. Given this, how can it be that we have not 
noticed them? The conclusion I reach is that it is likely (although not certain) that there are no such other civilizations. 
In other words, we are in the lead. That's right, our humble civilization with its pickup trucks, fast food, and persistent 
conflicts (and computation!) is in the lead in terms of the creation of complexity and order in the universe. 
Now how can that be? Isn't this extremely unlikely, given the sheer number of likely inhabited planets? Indeed it 
is very unlikely. But equally unlikely is the existence of our universe, with its set of laws of physics and related 
physical constants, so exquisitely, precisely what is needed for the evolution of life to be possible. But by the anthropic 
principle, if the universe didn't allow the evolution of life we wouldn't be here to notice it. Yet here we are. So by a 

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similar anthropic principle, we're here in the lead in the universe. Again, if we weren't here, we would not be noticing 
it. 
Let's consider some arguments against this perspective. 
Perhaps there are extremely advanced technological civilizations out there, but we are outside their light sphere of 
intelligence. That is, they haven't gotten here yet. Okay, in this case, SETI will still fail to find ETIs because we won't 
be able to see (or hear) them, at least not unless and until we find a way to break out of our light sphere (or the ETl 
does so) by manipulating the speed of light or finding shortcuts, as I discussed above. 
Perhaps they are among us, but have decided to remain invisible to us. If they have made that decision, they are 
likely to succeed in avoiding being noticed. Again, it is hard to believe that every single ETl has made the same 
decision. 
John Smart has suggested in what he calls the "transcension" scenario that once civilizations saturate their local 
region of space with their intelligence, they create a new universe (one that will allow continued exponential growth of 
complexity and intelligence) and essentially leave this universe.
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Smart suggests that this option may be so attractive 
that it is the consistent and inevitable outcome of an ETl's having reached an advanced stage of its development, and it 
thereby explains the Fermi Paradox. 
Incidentally, I have always considered the science-fiction notion of large spaceships piloted by huge, squishy 
creatures similar to us to be very unlikely. Seth Shostak comments that "the reasonable probability is that any 
extraterrestrial intelligence we will detect will be machine intelligence, not biological intelligence like us." In my view 
this is not simply a matter of biological beings sending out machines (as we do today) but rather that any civilization 
sophisticated enough to make the trip here would have long since passed the point of merging with its technology and 
would not need to send physically bulky organisms and equipment. 
If they exist, why would they come here? One mission would be for observation—to gather knowledge (just as we 
observe other species on Earth today). Another would be to seek matter and energy to provide additional substrate for 
its expanding intelligence. The intelligence and equipment needed for such exploration and expansion (by an ETl, or 
by us when we get to that stage of development) would be extremely small, basically nanobots and information 
transmissions. 
It appears that our solar system has not yet been turned into someone else's computer. And if this other civilization 
is only observing us for knowledge's sake and has decided to remain silent, SETl will fail to find it, because if an 
advanced civilization does not want us to notice it, it would succeed in that desire. Keep in mind that such a 
civilization would be vastly more intelligent than we are today. Perhaps it will reveal itself to us when we achieve the 
next level of our evolution, specifically merging our biological brains with our technology, which is to say, after the 
Singularity. However, given that the SETl assumption implies that there are billions of such highly developed 
civilizations, it seems unlikely that all of them have made the same decision to stay out of our way.