Microsoft Word 2007 ichrie conference Proceedings Final-Final 06-06-07. doc

Table 4 
Optimal foreign tourist market mixes 
Point 
Japan 
Hong Kong
USA 
Thailand 
South 
Korea 
Singapore Philippines Malaysia 
and 
Indonesia 
Europe Others 
A 
14.6% 5.5% 6.7% 8.6% 8.1% 7.4% 8.2% 9.5% 10.5% 21.0% 
B 
14.6% 5.5% 17.8% 8.6% 8.1% 7.4% 8.2% 9.5% 10.5% 9.9% 
C 
14.6% 6.0% 20.6% 8.6% 8.1% 7.4% 8.2% 9.5% 10.5% 6.6% 
D 
14.7% 6.1% 20.6% 8.5% 8.1% 7.3% 8.2% 9.4% 10.4% 6.6% 
E 
15.5% 7.7% 20.6% 8.6% 8.1% 7.4% 8.2% 9.5% 10.5% 4.0% 
F 
21.1% 5.8% 20.6% 8.6% 8.1% 3.7% 8.2% 9.5% 10.5% 4.0% 
G 
26.7% 8.4% 20.6% 8.6% 7.2% 1.7% 8.2% 4.2% 10.5% 4.0% 
H 
34.6% 8.4% 20.6% 8.6% 1.4% 1.7% 8.2% 2.1% 10.5% 4.0% 
I 
40.4% 
5.5% 
20.6% 8.6% 1.4% 1.7% 8.2% 2.1% 7.5% 4.0% 
J 
47.6% 
5.5% 
18.3% 8.6% 1.4% 1.7% 8.2% 2.1% 2.6% 4.0% 
K 
56.4% 
5.5% 9.6% 8.6% 1.4% 1.7% 8.2% 2.1% 2.6% 4.0% 
L 
58.4% 
7.3% 5.8% 8.6% 1.4% 1.7% 8.2% 2.1% 2.6% 4.0% 
UL 
58.4% 25.4% 20.6% 8.6% 8.1% 7.4% 8.2% 9.5% 10.5% 28.1% 
LL 
14.6% 
5.5% 5.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6% 4.0% 
Note: UL and LL denote the upper limit (C1i) and lower limit (C2i).
There could be an infinite number of optimal market mixes available to satisfy the objective of QP and its 
constraints. As shown in Table 4, a set of the mix solutions were found for obtaining the minimum variances of 
mean market arrivals. With the upper and lower limits of Table 4, point A was identified with mean yearly market 
arrivals of 300 and its standard deviation of 42.79. As mean arrivals go up following points B and C, standard 
deviations go down, unlike our expectation, indicating that points A and B are not optimal mixes. At point C, the 
minimum variance portfolio, which offers a standard deviation of 35.62 and an expected mean market arrival of 304, 
was achieved under the upper and lower constraints. At that point, the U.S. should top the market share (20.6 
percent), followed by the Japanese market (14.6 percent), Europe (10,5 percent), and Malaysia/Indonesia (9.5 
percent). To achieve point C, when compared to the year 2005 data, Taiwan should increase arrivals from the U.S., 
Thailand, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia/Indonesia, and Europe, whereas it should decrease 
arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong. The point warrants the most stable arrivals across the markets but the least 
arrivals are expected. As the volatility level increases, Japanese market share seems to keep growing. At point F, the 
Japanese market becomes the largest (21.1 percent), with a rapid drop of Singapore. When the volatility level goes 

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