Lecture 6 Probability



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Lecture 6 Introduction to probability

Mathematical expectation

Mathematical expectation

365bet.com sent you following offers for coming El-Classico game depending on your betting:

    • If Barcelona wins, they will triple your money
    • If Real Madrid wins, they will double your money
    • If game results in a draw, they will quadruple your money
    • If you would like to bet for $100, assuming the possibilities of outcomes are equally likely, what will be the expected sum of your money?

Your possible earnings:

    • $300 or $0 if you bet on Barcelona’s victory
    • $200 or $0 if you bet on Real Madrid’s victory
    • $400 or $0 if you bet on a draw
    • Hence, the expected sum of your income will be

Concluding remarks

Concluding remarks

Today, you learned:

  • Basic concepts within probability theory
  • Basic operations of calculating the sample space and number of probable events (combinations, permutations)
  • Operations with events
  • Relationship of events
  • Multiplication and Addition Rule
  • Expected Value

Essential reading

Essential reading

  • Jon Curwin, “Quantitative methods.” Ch-9 (p.249).

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