Landsats Aff

Water – Impact – Mid East

Water crisis is coming soon: Failure to solve Euphrates river collapses middle East stability.
Klaas 3 (Prof. Animal Ecology, Iowa State, "Potential for Water Wars in the 21st Century, http://www.public.iastate.edu/~mariposa/waterwars.htm, accessed 7/6/11) CJQ

Syria and Iraq are not much more cordial with each other than they are with Turkey, but after Turkey and Israel agreed to a military alliance a few years ago, Iraq and Syria agreed to cooperate, at least on water issues. They signed an agreement in 1990 to share the Euphrates, 52 percent for Iraq and 48 percent for Syria, but they almost went to war on several occasions. Iraq has threatened several times to blow up the Assad Dam in Syria. Turkey also blames Syria for sheltering Marxist Kurdish guerrillas who have promised to blow up the Atatürk Dam and who have killed more than 29,000 Turkish civilians over 15 years. The Marsh Arabs in southern Iraq have been severely persecuted by Saddam Hussein and his government. Iraq has built a 330-mile artificial canal called the Saddam River that starts near Baghdad and ends near Basra. This project resulted in large areas of the southern plains being drained and the Marsh Arabs have been either killed or pushed aside.

Water – Impact – Golan Heights

Continued Syrian crunch leads to conflict over the Golan Heights and displaces a million people.
NYT 10 (Daniel Williams, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/03/world/middleeast/03iht-letter.html, accessed 7/7/11) CJQ

The water shortage has contributed in the past to conflict with Israel over the Golan Heights, which the Israelis conquered in the 1967 Middle East War and Syria wants back. The area contains watersheds that flow into the Sea of Galilee, a major source of Israel’s water, and control of these resources has been a sticking point when the countries have met in negotiations. Repeated requests to discuss the drought and water policies went unanswered by the government of President Bashar al-Assad, 44, who has ruled Syria for a decade. The lack of water has caused more than 800,000 people in eastern Syria to lose “almost all of their livelihoods and face extreme hardship,” according to a report by the U.N. humanitarian office. About 80 percent of the hardest hit “live on a diet consisting of bread and sugared tea,” the report said.

Water – Impact – Water Wars

Diminishing supplies of water require new modes of management—status quo flashes wars around the globe.
Namrouqa 11 (Hana, Jordan Times, http://www.jordantimes.com/?news=35992, accessed 7/7/11) CJQ

He emphasised that climate change, which is altering rainfall patterns, coupled with a rapid human industrial development, is worsening the water situation globally. “The world is only now waking up to a frightening new reality, a new global challenge: the growing gap between the demand for water and the diminishing availability of water,” added Prince Feisal, who is chairman of the Royal Water Committee. He underscored that water supply by the end of the 20th century evolved to become a global issue, one that is not only socially, politically and human rights-related, but a security issue. “… Indeed, many experts now believe that water could become a flashpoint for regional instabilities,” the Prince said. He expressed hope that the Efficient 2011, an international water event held in Jordan for the first time, will help come up with activities that integrate water demand management concepts and practices in the region. During the five-day event, experts will explore the impacts of drought, climate change and water loss among other global challenges on water resources and come up with recommendations on incorporating water demand management in urban water planning. The conference, organised by the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, USAID and the IWA, seeks to shed light on the current global water crisis and find solutions to water challenges, particularly for countries that suffer from water scarcity such as Jordan. Minister of Water and Irrigation Mohammad Najjar pointed out that the conference is being held at a vital time and place, referring to the dropping levels of the Dead Sea. “Rising water stress levels around the globe are undermining the continued efforts towards achieving sustainability of ecosystems, societies and economics,” he noted during the opening ceremony. The minister added that Jordan, the fourth water poorest nation in the world, is drawing up corrective water policies and innovative solutions that adopt a supply-oriented approach to water management. USAID Acting Mission Director Dana Mansouri said water scarcity is emerging as one of the greatest challenges of the current time, noting that growing populations, expanding economies, and climate change are putting fresh water resources under increasing pressure in many parts of the world. “Today’s solutions to water scarcity are three: to transport freshwater in at great expense; to create fresh water from salt water at even greater expense; and to use water more efficiently, which actually saves money,” she highlighted.

Water – Impact – Central Asia

Water crisis coming in Central Asia—failure to change management strategies continues food, humanitarian and political crises and risks escalation.
Linn 11 (Johannes, Ex. Dir. Wolfensohn Center for Development, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/ 2008/0619_central_asia_linn.aspx, accessed 7/7/11) CJQ

Central Asia is fundamentally an arid region, with its most fertile regions former deserts made arable by vast irrigation systems. Most of the water comes from the mountain ranges of Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan (and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan) channeled downstream to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan through the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. Over the last century Soviet engineers harnessed these water resources with an extensive system of dams and irrigation canals to support the rapidly growing populations of the downstream countries and their agricultural production that in turn supported the Soviet Union. The dams also produce electricity, but peak demand for electricity is in the cold winter months, when water needs to be stored for summer irrigation release. During Soviet days downstream countries provided the upstream countries with gas and coal in the winter to allow them to generate heat and power without releasing water. With the breakup of the Soviet Union the elaborate set of water and energy sharing agreements among the Soviet republics of Central Asia largely broke down and the previously integrated regional water and electricity infrastructure became fragmented and suffered from lack of maintenance. With overuse and poor water management agricultural yields stagnated or fell, and the water levels of the Aral Sea dropped precipitously, leaving behind a mere remnant of what was previously one of the largest inland seas in the World. As a result the provinces around the Aral Sea, in particular the Karakalpakstan region of Uzbekistan, suffered great hardships and increases in poverty. While the Central Asian republics of the Former Soviet Union avoided open conflict and military hostilities over scarce water resources, their relations have been strained, especially between Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic on the one side and Uzbekistan on the other. Against this backdrop, a water and energy situation that is already difficult and tense at best during years of normal weather can quickly deteriorate into a major humanitarian, economic and political crisis for the region. This and next year shape up to be particularly problematic, since normal climatic cycles (probably linked to the El Nino-La Nina phenomenon) appear to be intensifying and are overlaid on the long-term effects of global warming. The last major drought in the region occurred in 2000-01. It affected not only the republics of the Former Soviet Union, but also Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia, with devastating effects on the region’s agricultural production. According to the International Institute for Research on Climate Prediction in 2001 half of Tajikistan’s grain crop failed and cereal production dropped 15% below that of the previous year.[1] A UN team reported during the same year that the regional drought severely affected some 550,000 to 600,000 people in Uzbekistan.[2] International agencies organized a major relief initiative at the time.[3] This year the situation in the region may well turn out worse. The summer of 2007 was unusually hot and dry in much of Central Asia, followed by an exceptionally cold and dry winter. The winter had its most severe impact in Tajikistan, where parts of the country had to do without electricity altogether for weeks at a time, shutting down schools and limiting hospital operations, and forcing families to live without heat or light during the winter months when temperatures as low at -30 degree Celsius were not uncommon. Even Dushanbe was severely affected by power cuts to the point that international organizations were on the verge of evacuating their personnel, including locally hired staff, for humanitarian reasons. Tajikistan’s situation was aggravated by the fact that Uzbekistan, plagued by its own winter energy shortages, suspended gas exports and limited transfer of electricity through its territory. At the same time, the food situation in the country deteriorated, as farmers had to eat or sell their seed stock, cattle ran short of feed, aquaculture suffered from frozen ponds and streams, and food supplies from neighboring countries dwindled along with rising prices.[4] Kazakhstan, the main grain exporter in the region, banned exports, including to its neighbors, reinforcing the damage done by the world food crisis beyond its borders. While spring and early summer brought welcome relief from sub-zero winter temperatures, it turned out to be another dry season, with reports of pastures in the south of the country parched already early in the year. With water levels in the reservoirs as low as they are already now and no relief in sight for the rest of the year, the next winter even if less severe than the last, will again bring months with little or no electricity for seven million Tajiks.