Islom karimov nomidagi

2. Analytical methods and tools

2.1. Statistical analysis. Many analytical methods and tools used in the analysis of safety aspects are based on statistical procedures and concepts. For example, in risk analysis, statistical probability concepts are applied. Statistics play an important role in the process of analyzing security aspects, helping to quantify situations and thereby numerical values ​​that reflect the essence of the problem. This provides more reliable results to provide convincing arguments on security aspects. The type of analysis of security aspects that is carried out at the level of the security management system requires basic skills in analyzing digital data, identifying trends and performing basic statistical calculations. Statistical methods are also suitable for graphical presentation of analysis results. Although statistics are an effective tool for analyzing security aspects, they can be misused and, as a result, lead to erroneous conclusions. When choosing and using certain data in the process of statistical analysis, care must be taken. To ensure the proper use of more sophisticated methods, the help of specialists in the field of statistical analysis may be required. Safety statistics illustrate historical safety gains - they provide a “snapshot” of past events. The digital or graphical form provides a simple and accessible representation of the level of safety in a particular aviation sector in the form of the number or frequency of accidents, incidents or casualties over a given period of time. At the highest level, this could be the number of casualties in the last ten years. At a lower (more specific) level, flight safety indicators include factors such as the frequency of certain technical events (for example, separation interval violations, engine shutdowns, TCAS recommendations and unauthorized runway exits). Security statistics can focus on specific aspects of an enterprise’s business to track security results or to identify areas of interest. Such a “retrospective” approach assists in the analysis of trends, the identification of hazardous factors, the implementation of risk assessment, as well as in the selection of risk control measures.

2.2. Trend analysis. By tracking trends in safety data, future events can be predicted. Emerging trends may indicate the emergence of sources of danger. To assess the significance of the observed trends, statistical methods can be used. You can determine the upper and lower limits of acceptable characteristics and compare current indicators with them. Trend analysis can also be used for "emergency warning" when the characteristics are close to going beyond acceptable ranges.

2.3. Comparisons with regulatory data. There may be situations where there is insufficient data to provide a factual basis that would allow a comparison of the circumstances of the events or situations with everyday conditions. The lack of reliable regulatory data often casts doubt on the usefulness of analyzing safety aspects. In such cases, it may be necessary to turn to real world experience, where there are similar operating conditions.

2.4. Modeling and testing. In some cases, hidden hazards may occur during testing: for example, laboratory tests may be required to analyze material defects. In the case of suspicious operating procedures, field modeling may be required under actual operating conditions or on the simulator.

2.5. Expert Group Meeting. Given the diverse nature of the hazards and the various possible approaches to assessing an unsafe condition, it is necessary to take into account the views of other people, including colleagues and specialists. A multidisciplinary team formed to assess evidence of unsafe conditions can help in determining the best corrective actions.

2.6. Cost-benefit analysis. The adoption of recommended risk factor control measures may depend on the reliability of cost-benefit analyzes. The costs of implementing the proposed measures are commensurate with the benefits that are expected to be received within a certain time. Sometimes a cost-benefit analysis may show that risk taking is the preferred option compared to the time, effort, and cost needed to take corrective action.