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C H A P T E R
2 4
Portfolio Performance Evaluation
881
b. Time-weighted return:
The rates of return on the stock in the 2 years were:
r
1
5
2
1 (22 2 20)
20
5 .20
r
2
5
2
1 (19 2 22)
22
5 2.045
(
r
1
1 r
2
)/2
5 .077, or 7.7%
2. Sharpe: (
r
2 r
f
)/s
S
P
5 (35 2 6)/42 5 .69
S
M
5 (28 2 6)/30 5 .733
Alpha: r
2 3r
f
1 b(r
M
2 r
f
)
4
a
P
5 35 2 36 1 1.2(28 2 6)4 5 2.6
a
M
5 0
Treynor: (r
2 r
f
)/b
T
P
5 (35 2 6)/1.2 5 24.2
T
M
5 (28 2 6)/1.0 5 22
Information ratio: a / s ( e )
I
P
5 2.6/18 5 .144
I
M
5 0
3. The alpha exceeds zero by .2/2 5 .1 standard deviations. A table of the normal distribution (or,
somewhat more appropriately, the distribution of the t- statistic) indicates that the probability of
such an event, if the analyst actually has no skill, is approximately 46%.
4. The timer will guess bear or bull markets completely randomly. One-half of all bull
markets will be preceded by a correct forecast, and similarly for bear markets. Hence
P
1
1 P
2
2 1 5 ½ 1 ½ 2 1 5 0.
5. First compute the new bogey performance as (.70 3 5.81) 1 (.25 3 1.45) 1 (.05 3 .48) 5 4.45.
a. Contribution of asset allocation to performance:
Market
(1)
Actual
Weight in
Market
(2)
Benchmark
Weight in
Market
(3)
Active
or Excess
Weight
(4)
Market
Return
(%)
(5) 5 (3) 3 (4)
Contribution to
Performance (%)
Equity
.70
.70
.00
5.81
.00
Fixed-income
.07
.25
2
.18
1.45
2
.26
Cash
.23
.05
.18
0.48
.09
Contribution of asset allocation
2
.17
b. Contribution of selection to total performance:
Market
(1)
Portfolio
Performance
(%)
(2)
Index
Performance
(%)
(3)
Excess
Performance
(%)
(4)
Portfolio
Weight
(5) 5 (3) 3 (4)
Contribution (%)
Equity
7.28
5.00
2.28
.70
1.60
Fixed-income
1.89
1.45
0.44
.07
0.03
Contribution of selection within markets
1.63
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bod61671_ch24_835-881.indd 881
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25
2
ALTHOUGH WE IN
the United States cus-
tomarily use a broad index of U.S. equities
as the market-index portfolio, the practice is
increasingly inappropriate. U.S. equities rep-
resent less than 40% of world equities and
a far smaller fraction of total world wealth.
In this chapter, we look beyond domestic
markets to survey issues of international
and extended diversification. In one sense,
international investing may be viewed as
no more than a straightforward generaliza-
tion of our earlier treatment of portfolio
selection with a larger menu of assets from
which to construct a portfolio. Similar issues
of diversification, security analysis, security
selection, and asset allocation face the inves-
tor. On the other hand, international invest-
ments pose some problems not encountered
in domestic markets. Among these are the
presence of exchange rate risk, restrictions
on capital flows across national boundar-
ies, an added dimension of political risk and
country-specific regulations, and differing
accounting practices in different countries.
Therefore, in this chapter we review the
major topics covered in the rest of the book,
emphasizing their international aspects. We
start with the central concept of portfo-
lio theory—diversification. We will see that
global diversification offers opportunities
for improving portfolio risk–return trade-
offs. We also will see how exchange rate
fluctuations and political risk affect the risk
of international investments. We next turn
to passive and active investment styles in the
international context. We will consider some
of the special problems involved in the inter-
pretation of passive index portfolios, and
we will show how active asset allocation can
be generalized to incorporate country and
currency choices in addition to traditional
domestic asset class choices. Finally, we dem-
onstrate performance attribution for inter-
national investments.
CHAPTER TWENTY-FIVE
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