C H A P T E R
2 3
Futures, Swaps, and Risk Management
801
number of dollars needed to purchase a given unit of
foreign currency. In Figure 23.1 , both spot and forward
exchange rates are listed for various delivery dates.
The forward quotations listed in Figure 23.1 apply to
rolling delivery in 30, 90, or 180 days. Thus tomorrow’s
forward listings will apply to a maturity date 1 day later
than today’s listing. In contrast, the futures contracts in
Figure 23.2 mature on only four dates each year, in March,
June, September, and December.
Interest Rate Parity
As is true of stocks and stock futures, there is a spot-
futures exchange rate relationship that will prevail in well-
functioning markets. Should this so-called
interest rate
parity relationship be violated, arbitrageurs will be able
to make risk-free profits in foreign exchange markets with
zero-net-investment. Their actions will force futures and spot
exchange rate back into alignment. Another term for interest
rate parity is the covered interest arbitrage relationship.
We can illustrate the interest rate parity theorem by using two currencies, the U.S. dollar
and the British (U.K.) pound. Call E
0
the current exchange rate between the two curren-
cies, that is,
E
0
dollars are required to purchase one pound. F
0
, the forward price, is the
number of dollars agreed to today for purchase of one pound at time T. Call the risk-free
rates in the United States and United Kingdom r
US
and r
UK
, respectively.
The interest rate parity theorem then states that the proper relationship between E
0
and
F
0
is
F
0
5 E
0
¢
1
1 r
US
1
1 r
UK
≤
T
(23.1)
For example, if
r
US
5 .04 and r
UK
5 .05 annually, while E
0
5 $2 per pound, then the
proper futures price for a 1-year contract would be
$2.00
a
1.04
1.05
b 5 $1.981 per pound
Consider the intuition behind Equation 23.1. If r
US
is less than r
UK
, money invested in
the United States will grow at a slower rate than money invested in the United Kingdom.
If this is so, why wouldn’t all investors decide to invest their money in the United Kingdom?
One important reason why not is that the dollar may be appreciating relative to the pound.
Although dollar investments in the United States grow slower than pound investments in
the United Kingdom, each dollar may be worth more pounds in the forward market than
in the spot market. Such a forward premium can exactly offset the advantage of the higher
U.K. interest rate.
To complete the argument, we ask how an appreciating dollar would show up in Equation
23.1. If the dollar is appreciating, fewer dollars are required to purchase each pound, and the
forward exchange rate F
0
(in dollars per pound) will be less than E
0
, the current exchange
rate. This is exactly what Equation 23.1 tells us: When r
US
is less than r
UK
, F
0
must be
less than
E
0
. The forward premium of the dollar embodied in the ratio of F
0
to E
0
exactly
compensates for the difference in interest rates available in the two countries. Of course, the
argument also works in reverse: If r
US
is greater than r
UK
, then F
0
is greater than E
0
.
Japanese Yen(CME)-¥12,500,000; $ per 100¥
March 1.0675
1.0854 1.0672 1.0777 .0086 217,367
June 1.0687
1.0861 1.0683 1.0785 .0086 2,320
Canadian Dollar (CME)-CAD 100,000; $ per CAD
March 1.0016
1.0021 .9954 .9964
2.0047 131,433
June .9994
.9998 .9939 .9944
2.0047 4,071
British Pound (CME)-£62,500; $ per £
March 1.5711
1.5842 1.5707 1.5794 .0086 165,688
June 1.5699
1.5817 1.5697 1.5787 .0086
457
Swiss Franc (CME)-CHF125,000; $ per CHF
March 1.0888
1.0929 1.0886 1.0907 .0008 41,574
June 1.0913
1.0924 1.0912 1.0919 .0008
73
Open
Settle
Chg
Open
interest
High hi lo low
Contract
Figure 23.2
Foreign exchange futures
Source: The Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2013.
Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal,
© 2013 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved
worldwide.
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