Annual percentage rates (APR) and effective annual rates (EAR). In the first set of columns, we
hold the equivalent annual rate (EAR) fixed at 5.8% and find APR for each holding period. In
C H A P T E R
5
Risk, Return, and the Historical Record
125
period compounding. As another example, look again at Equation 5.1. There, the relation-
ship between the real rate rr, the nominal rate rn, and the inflation rate i, rr < rn 2 i, was
only an approximation, as demonstrated by Equation 5.3. But if we express all rates as
continuously compounded, then Equation 5.1 is exact,
7
that is, rr
cc
5 rn
cc
2 i
cc
.
7
1 1 r (real) 5
1 1
r (nominal)
1 1 inflation
1 ln31 1 r(real)4 5 ln a
1 1 r (nominal)
1 1 inflation
b 5 ln31 1 r(nominal)4 2 ln(1 1 inflation)
1 r
cc
(real) 5 r
cc
(nominal) 2 i
cc
A bank offers two alternative interest schedules for a savings account of $100,000 locked in for 3 years:
(
a ) a monthly rate of 1%; (
b ) an annually, continuously compounded rate (
r
cc
) of 12%. Which alternative
should you choose?
CONCEPT CHECK
5.2
Financial time series often begin in July 1926, the starting date of a widely used accu-
rate return database from the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of
Chicago.
Table 5.2 summarizes the history of short-term interest rates in the U.S., the inflation
rate, and the resultant real rate. You can find the entire post-1926 history of the monthly
rates of these series on the text’s Web site, www.mhhe.com/bkm (link to the student mate-
rial for Chapter 5). The real rate is computed from the monthly T-bill rate and the percent
change in the CPI.
The first set of columns of Table 5.2 lists average annual rates for the various series.
The average interest rate over the more recent half of our history (1969–2012), 5.35%, was
noticeably higher than in the earlier half, 1.79%. The reason is inflation, the main driver
of T-bill rates, which also had a noticeably higher average value in the recent half of the
sample, 4.36%, than in the earlier period, 1.74%. Nevertheless, nominal interest rates over
the recent period were still high enough to leave a higher average real rate, 0.95%, com-
pared with a paltry 10 basis points (.10%) for the earlier half.
5.3
Bills and Inflation, 1926–2012
Table 5.2
Statistics for
T-bill rates,
inflation rates,
and real rates,
1926–2012
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