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Balance Sheet:
PERIOD ENDING
|
31-Dec-04
|
31-Dec-03
|
31-Dec-02
|
|
Assets
|
Current Assets
|
|
Cash And Cash Equivalents
|
1,156,000
|
1,947,000
|
1,520,000
|
|
Short Term Investments
|
328,000
|
185,000
|
215,000
|
|
Net Receivables
|
46,696,000
|
40,716,000
|
33,150,000
|
|
Inventory
|
15,698,000
|
11,617,000
|
10,181,000
|
|
Other Current Assets
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Total Current Assets
|
63,878,000
|
54,465,000
|
45,066,000
|
Long Term Investments
|
18,392,000
|
18,637,000
|
4,728,000
|
Property Plant and Equipment
|
96,455,000
|
91,911,000
|
87,682,000
|
Goodwill
|
11,079,000
|
10,838,000
|
10,354,000
|
Intangible Assets
|
4,204,000
|
4,473,000
|
5,128,000
|
Accumulated Amortization
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Other Assets
|
7,069,000
|
1,139,000
|
4,633,000
|
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges
|
(1,533,000)
|
(65,000)
|
(78,000)
|
|
Total Assets
|
199,544,000
|
181,398,000
|
157,513,000
|
|
Liabilities
|
Current Liabilities
|
|
Accounts Payable
|
54,341,000
|
41,128,000
|
36,215,000
|
|
Short/Current Long Term Debt
|
10,184,000
|
9,456,000
|
10,086,000
|
|
Other Current Liabilities
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Total Current Liabilities
|
64,525,000
|
50,584,000
|
46,301,000
|
Long Term Debt
|
17,412,000
|
12,869,000
|
11,922,000
|
Other Liabilities
|
11,734,000
|
21,783,000
|
18,139,000
|
Deferred Long Term Liability Charges
|
19,438,000
|
15,273,000
|
13,514,000
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Minority Interest
|
1,343,000
|
1,125,000
|
638,000
|
Negative Goodwill
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Total Liabilities
|
114,452,000
|
101,634,000
|
90,514,000
|
|
Stockholders' Equity
|
Misc Stocks Options Warrants
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Redeemable Preferred Stock
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Preferred Stock
|
21,000
|
-
|
21,000
|
Common Stock
|
5,382,000
|
5,552,000
|
5,595,000
|
Retained Earnings
|
37,763,000
|
38,700,000
|
32,344,000
|
Treasury Stock
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Capital Surplus
|
6,366,000
|
4,480,000
|
4,243,000
|
Other Stockholder Equity
|
35,560,000
|
31,032,000
|
24,796,000
|
|
Total Stockholder Equity
|
85,092,000
|
79,764,000
|
66,999,000
|
|
Net Tangible Assets
|
$69,809,000
|
$64,453,000
|
$51,517,000
|
|
|
|
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Free Cash Flow
PERIOD ENDING
|
31-Dec-04
|
31-Dec-03
|
31-Dec-02
|
Net Income
|
17,090,000
|
13,143,000
|
8,397,000
|
|
Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
|
Depreciation
|
12,583,000
|
10,940,000
|
10,401,000
|
Adjustments To Net Income
|
(9,105,000)
|
(6,750,000)
|
(5,694,000)
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Changes In Accounts Receivables
|
(10,920,000)
|
(5,628,000)
|
(2,672,000)
|
Changes In Liabilities
|
9,861,000
|
1,750,000
|
2,846,000
|
Changes In Inventories
|
(3,595,000)
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(841,000)
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(1,521,000)
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Changes In Other Operating Activities
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities
|
24,066,000
|
16,731,000
|
15,903,000
|
|
Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
|
Capital Expenditures
|
(13,035,000)
|
(12,440,000)
|
(12,116,000)
|
Investments
|
-
|
41,000
|
1,147,000
|
Other Cashflows from Investing Activities
|
1,081,000
|
2,705,000
|
(234,000)
|
|
Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities
|
(11,954,000)
|
(9,694,000)
|
(11,203,000)
|
|
Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
|
Dividends Paid
|
(6,074,000)
|
(5,654,000)
|
(5,264,000)
|
Sale Purchase of Stock
|
-
|
(1,826,000)
|
555,000
|
Net Borrowings
|
-
|
760,000
|
(736,000)
|
Other Cash Flows from Financing Activities
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities
|
(6,074,000)
|
(6,720,000)
|
(5,445,000)
|
Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents
|
$6,038,000
|
$317,000
|
($745,000)
|
|
|
|
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Earnings, Revenue and Growth Forecasts from Analysts
Obtained data from finance.yahoo.com
Earnings Estimates and Trends BP
Earnings Est
|
Current Qtr
Dec-05
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Next Qtr
Mar-06
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Current Year
Dec-05
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Next Year
Dec-06
|
Avg. Estimate
|
1.87
|
1.83
|
6.35
|
7.00
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No. of Analysts
|
11
|
4
|
17
|
17
|
Low Estimate
|
1.57
|
1.45
|
5.70
|
5.51
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High Estimate
|
2.23
|
1.97
|
6.82
|
9.00
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Year Ago EPS
|
1.33
|
1.39
|
4.63
|
6.35
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EPS Trends
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Current Qtr
Dec-05
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Next Qtr
Mar-06
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Current Year
Dec-05
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Next Year
Dec-06
|
Current Estimate
|
1.87
|
1.83
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6.35
|
7.00
|
7 Days Ago
|
1.87
|
1.83
|
6.35
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7.00
|
30 Days Ago
|
1.96
|
2.07
|
6.68
|
7.31
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60 Days Ago
|
1.81
|
1.63
|
6.42
|
6.49
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90 Days Ago
|
1.72
|
1.77
|
6.15
|
6.16
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BP’s current estimate fluctuated starting low, then increasing and then reducing their estimate. An explanation for the drop in their explanation from 30 days ago could be that crude oil prices are on their way done and thus there profits are decreasing.
Revenue Estimates and Trends
Revenue Est
|
Current Qtr
Dec-05
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Next Qtr
Mar-06
|
Current Year
Dec-05
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Next Year
Dec-06
|
Avg. Estimate
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
322.98B
|
355.36B
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No. of Analysts
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Low Estimate
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
271.10B
|
275.72B
|
High Estimate
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
384.40B
|
476.93B
|
Year Ago Sales
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
322.98B
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Sales Growth (year/est)
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
10.0%
|
Growth Est
|
BP
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Industry
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Sector
|
S&P 500
|
Current Qtr.
|
40.6%
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Next Qtr.
|
31.7%
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
This Year
|
37.1%
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
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Next Year
|
10.2%
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Past 5 Years (per annum)
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7.1%
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
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Next 5 Years (per annum)
|
8.7%
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories)
|
10.2
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories)
|
1.17
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
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Notably most of the information was not submitted and therefore further analysis is impossible.
VIII. Analysis of Risk
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BP is a stable company and is a proven leader in its industry. BP has settled all of its claims outstanding in March of 2005 and it does not pose any threat to hurting our portfolio. The energy industry has been outperforming the S&P 500 and analysts believe that the integrated oil and gas industry will keep returns higher than the market. The energy sector is pretty correlated with the movements of the market. As long as our economy does not go into recession, then the demand for petroleum products will keep rising. China and India consuming so much oil and with expected forecasts of a 2% increase in consumption in 2006, the demand is going to definitely outweigh the supply that the world has. It is included in the Amex
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BP is traded on the NYSE under the ticker, BP, and its price is currently between its 52 week high and low.
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BP has a Beta of 0.50 (www.advfn.com) and it’s standard deviation, or relevant risk is 3.30
Marketability
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Trading Location: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
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Average Volume: (3 mo.) 3,589,640
Total Risk
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52 week range
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The 52 week range for BP is $56.60 - $72.66. The closing price on Monday November 14, 2205 was $65.50 which was a 1.19% increase from Friday November 11, 2005 with a stock price of $64.72.
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Finance.yahoo.com graph:
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Clear to see that BP’s stock price is not that volatile and has been on a steady increase.
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Standard Deviation: 3.3
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