Landsats Aff

Famine – Impact – Starvation

Climate change and food shortages guarantee coming famine for the poor.
Rosenthal 7 (Elisabeth, New York Times, http://www.physics.rutgers.edu/~karin/140/articles/nyt-shrinking-food-12-18-2007.pdf, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ

ROME — In an “unforeseen and unprecedented” shift, the world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to historic levels, the United Nations’ top food and agriculture official warned Monday. The changes created “a very serious risk that fewer people will be able to get food,” particularly in the developing world, said Jacques Diouf, head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. The agency’s food price index rose by more than 40 percent this year, compared with 9 percent the year before — a rate that was already unacceptable, Mr. Diouf said. New figures show that the total cost of food imported by the neediest countries rose 25 percent in the last year, to $107 million. At the same time, reserves of cereals are severely depleted, the agency’s records show. World wheat stores declined 11 percent this year, to the lowest level since 1980. That corresponds with 12 weeks of the world’s total consumption, much less than the average of 18 weeks’ consumption, in storage during the 2000-2005 period. There are only 8 weeks of corn left, down from 11 weeks in the same five-year period. Prices of wheat and oilseeds are at record highs, Mr. Diouf said Monday. Wheat prices have risen by $130 a ton, or 52 percent, since a year ago. United States wheat futures broke $10 a bushel for the first time Monday, a psychological milestone. Mr. Diouf said the crisis was a result of a confluence of recent supply and demand factors that, he said, were here to stay. On the supply side, the early effects of global warming have decreased crop yields in some crucial places. So has a shift away from farming for human consumption to crops for biofuels and cattle feed. Demand for grain is increasing as the world’s population grows and more is diverted to feed cattle as the population of upwardly mobile meat-eaters grows. “We’re concerned that we are facing the perfect storm for the world’s hungry,” said Josette Sheeran, executive director of the World Food Program, in a telephone interview. She said that her agency’s food procurement costs had gone up 50 percent in the last five years and that some poor people were being “priced out of the food market.” To make matters worse, high oil prices have doubled shipping costs in the last year, putting stress on poor nations that need to import food and the humanitarian agencies that provide it. Climate specialists say the poor’s vulnerability will only increase.

Famine – Impact – Disease

Famine leads to disease—minor scratches develop into massive infections which ensure death. Accurate predictions allow for planning which can solve.
Tamas 8 (R. Tamas, Hungarian Defence University, http://caribbean.scielo.org/scielo.php ?script=s ci_arttext&pid=S0043-31442008000100016&lng=en&nrm=iso, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ

In famine, there are usually not enough doctors or nurses; hospital beds and equipment are insufficient; drugs and vaccines are scarce. The efficient organization of relief depends on accurate assessments of the course of the famine. The number of people likely to be in need of relief in the near future must be forecast. Great disasters seldom arise suddenly and without warning. If possible, the causes of death and the nature of the diseases requiring hospital treatment should be stated. An adequate supply of sanitary stores, including vaccines, and disinfectants, should be available also in war-time, with sufficient reserves kept in medical stores to meet any further emergency. In the early stages of famine, rapid recovery frequently follows a few days of feeding and attention to minor ailments. If treatment is neglected at this stage, the condition of the patient may rapidly deteriorate. It is therefore very important to give the best medical care to persons with even minor illnesses. In summary, famine relief in war-time inevitably presents many and diverse problems. It is often difficult for a worker on the spot to sort out what is essential from what is only desirable. It is hoped that this paper would stimulate thought on the principles of relief, for in famine, forethought is the best antidote to disaster.

Famine – Impact – War

Famine leads to warfare, which leads to malnutrition—once the genie is out of the bottle it won't go back in. Food wars spark massive revolutions—regimes will backlash and crush the population.
Smith 98 (Paul J., Asia-Pacific Center for Sec'y Studies, http://www.apcss.org/Publications/ Report_Food_Security_98.html, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ

Food security and political stability are often inextricably linked in many countries. Historically, significant malnutrition and famine have been caused by the disruption of food supplies through wars and civil strife.53  Yet, the concepts of food security and political stability are often mutually dependent and reinforcing. Food security, for example, can influence the political stability of countries. Simultaneously, political instability (such as wars or other forms of civil strife) can influence food security, as can be seen recently in the case of Indonesia. One seminar participant noted that the greatest risk for regime stability is the risk of urban riots—riots that are sometimes sparked by food shortages or sudden price increases among food products. Generally, starvation in the countryside does not result in political instability. This is because those who experience the brunt of food shortages tend to be rural and have little political voice. A recent example of this phenomenon occurred in India where rising food prices led to urban riots directed at India’s ruling political party—the Bharatiya Janata Party. Similarly, when the price of rice soared in Indonesia, thereby making it prohibitively expensive for a large segment of the population, food riots erupted in eastern Java. The government deployed military forces around markets to prevent looting. Moreover, China’s sharp rejection of the Lester Brown thesis that China needs to import massive amounts of grain from the world market in the coming century was partially rooted in a persistent fear within the Chinese government that food insecurity could potentially provoke widespread anger against the Communist Party and perhaps lead to civil unrest. Thus, the sensitivity that many Asian governments have about food security may be linked to fears of social instability and perhaps even political revolution. Food security thus becomes an issue of regime survival. Another security concern prominent in many Asian capitals is the prospect for increased economic migration as a result of food shortages. Internal migration is the first concern for many governments, especially as internal migration is often a natural "coping response" in times of famine. When North Korea experienced severe floods in September 1995, South Korea responded by creating refugee camps to deal with the possible flood of people who might have fled toward the south. Similarly, Indonesia’s food crisis in 1997 was partly responsible for the outflow of thousands of Indonesian migrants to Malaysia. As the crisis in Indonesia intensified in early 1998, many neighboring countries feared that many more "hungry Indonesians [would] take to boats in search of a better life."54 Many countries in East Asia are extremely sensitive and wary about immigration—especially mass migration or illegal migration. The recent surge in labor and economic migration throughout the region has catapulted the immigration issue to the highest levels of government. Immigration disputes, moreover, have broken out between nations—such as the in case of Singapore and the Philippines in 1995—regarding illegal immigration and repatriation policies. Few governments in the region officially desire more immigration. To the extent that food insecurity might spur greater migration, then it may be viewed by many governments in the region as a security concern.