Landsats Aff

Famine – IL – China Rice

China will face rice crisis in 2015—internal solutions fail.
Bradsher 11 (Keith, Hong Kong Bureau Chief of the NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14 /world/asia/14china.html?_r=1, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ

The risk of a grain shortage in China is on the rise due to increasing natural disasters and rising costs, even though the country has managed to increase its grain production for seven consecutive years, a Chinese agricultural official said. Deputy Agriculture Minister Wei Chaoan said in an interview with the People's Daily that while overall grain production meets current demand, issues facing long-term agricultural development remain, along with other emerging challenges. China's grain production totaled 1,092.8 billion catties (546.4 billion kilograms) in 2010, the fourth year that the figure topped the 1,000 billion catties mark, Wei said. Currently, China is self-sufficient in meeting demand for long-grained rice, wheat and corn. The supply of round-grained rice, which is generally grown in northern and southwestern China however, is tight, and could see a shortfall in 2015 when consumption is expected to surpass 25 billion catties. Additionally, the country already relies on imports of soybeans to meet increasing demand, since domestic production only supplies 30 percent of the market. China imported 42.55 million tons of soybeans in 2009 and that figure is set to top 50 million in 2010. With an annual grain loss of over 100 billion catties due to natural disasters, Wei said that the weather remains a deciding factor in China's agricultural production. Limited resources and rising labor and energy costs have also had negative effects on the sector. Continuing to increase farm land will no longer be a viable approach to increasing grain production to feed China's 1.3 billion population, while expanding production of cash crops like cotton at the same time, Wei said. During the 12th five-year period that begins this year, Wei said that China will work on keeping overall grain production above 1,080 billion catties, while maintaining total farm land at more than 1.6 billion mu (1,066.67 billion square meters). Furthermore, Wei said that China will focus on expanding round-grained rice production, while ensuring continuing self-sufficiency in long-grained rice, wheat and corn. To create a competitive sector, China will also increase farms of high-yielding cash crops in 2011 by over 10,000 mu.

Famine – IL – Russia Wheat

Russian wheat failures spur crunch—empirically leads to civil instability.
Hassan 10 (Amro, reporter, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2010/08/egypt-fears-of-a-crisis-after-russias-wheat-export-ban.html, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ

Russia's decision to ban grain exports is fueling anxiety among Egyptians that an international wheat crisis could lead to massive food shortages in the Arab world's most populous country.   Egypt is the world's top wheat importer, annually buying 6 million to 7 million tons from the international market. About 50% of that comes from Russia. However, record high heat, accompanied by wildfire and drought, has forced Moscow to abandon its commitments on wheat exports in order to protect Russian needs. That means Egypt will not receive 540,000 tons of wheat that was scheduled for delivery by Sept. 10. Nomani Nomani, head of the General Authority for Supply Commodities, has tried to downplay concerns of a potential food shortage. Nomani said Egypt has a four-month stockpile of wheat for local markets, and that the government will purchase an extra 60,000 tons a month from other countries. Nonetheless, Ali Sharaf Eddin, head of the Egyptian Chamber for Cereal, said the government is to blame for  producing only about 8 million tons of domestic wheat a year. "Now the country's treasury will have to spend an extra 5 billion Egyptian pounds to cope with the international increase in wheat prices," he said. Egyptians' greatest fear is a possible increase in the price of subsidized wheat products, such as bread, which are heavily relied upon by millions of poor citizens. According to U.N. figures, one-fifth of Egypt's population of 80 million are living on less than $1 per day. "We have no intention of raising the prices of subsidized commodities," said Ali Moseilhi, Minister of Social Solidarity.  International markets have already witnessed a 40% increase in wheat prices. The United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, warned of "serious implications for world wheat supplies in 2010/2011 should the Russian drought continue." In 2007, wheat prices tripled worldwide and resulted in vast shortages of subsidized bread across Egypt. Several people died as thousands fought in lines outside public bakeries for limited amounts of bread, forcing President Hosni Mubarak to order military intervention to end the conflict.

Famine – Impact – AIDS

Famine creates the conditions for the spread of AIDS: malnutrition combined with survival sex guarantee infection.
Himmelgreen and Romero-Daza 8 (David A., Nancy, University of South Florida, http://www.aaanet.org/pdf/upload/49-7-Himmelgreen-Romero-Daza-In-Focus.pdf, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ

During the 1970s and 1990s, Africa experienced worsening poverty, drought and malnutrition. Of the 19 famines registered globally between 1975 and 1998, 18 occurred in the continent. This led to massive migration to areas where burgeoning refugee camps emerged. In time, food shortages and unsanitary conditions made these settings ripe for the rapid spread of infections, including HIV/AIDS (Von Braun et al’s Famine in Africa 1999). As Scrimshaw and SanGiovanni note in “Synergism of Nutrition, Infection, and Immunity” (Journal of Clinical Nutrition 66[2]), HIV can adversely affect nutritional status through reduced absorption of nutrients, altered nutrient storage and insufficient food intake. Likewise, malnutrition can heighten the risk of infection, including increased susceptibility to HIV strains. Malnutrition plays a role in the onset of AIDS-related diseases in people living with HIV/AIDS, increases susceptibility to the disease among non-infected people and facilitates vertical transmission. The new Variant famine Theory In resource-poor settings, the synergy of HIV/AIDS and food insecurity facilitates the spread of the virus as people resort to strategies such as the exchange of sex for food. Furthermore, the epidemic depletes household assets and reduces people’s capacity to escape poverty (Masanjala, “The Poverty-HIV/AIDS Nexus in Africa,” Social Science & Medicine 64). De Waal and Whiteside (“New Variant Famine,” Lancet 362[9391]) argue that the new variant famine theory can be used to understand the role AIDS plays in intensifying the food crisis in Southern Africa. The impact of AIDS on the economy of SubSaharan Africa (SSA) is severe, with an estimate of up to 35% reduction in labor force by 2020. HIV/AIDS and food insecurity also limit the ability of households to produce or secure food, leading to under-nutrition and malnutrition (Gillespie and Kadiyala, “HIV/AIDS and Food and Nutrition Security,” Food Policy Review 7).