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Saudi Arabia still has huge amounts of untapped oil – their ev doesn’t assume enhanced recovery
Leonardo Maugeri June 2012 (“Oil: The Next Revolution¶ THE UNPRECEDENTED UPSURGE OF OIL PRODUCTION ¶ CAPACITY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD” The Geopolitics of Energy Project at The Harvard Kennedy Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf)
Even the most oil-rich country in the world, Saudi Arabia, still has much potential to exploit. ¶ Despite a flurry of recent doubts about the actual size of its reserves (a renewed attempt to ¶ discredit the country’s role as the world’s Central Bank for oil), the Kingdom will probably ¶ continue to defy skeptics for decades to come. Currently, its 260 billion barrels of proven ¶ reserves, a fifth of the world’s total, represent nearly one-third of the original oil in place ¶ estimated by the Saudi state oil giant, Saudi Aramco;¶ 10¶ yet the company has pointed out that its ¶ measurement does not take into account potential future advantages of enhanced recovery ¶ techniques.
No depletion until 2020 – after that tech boosts reservoir growth
Leonardo Maugeri June 2012 (“Oil: The Next Revolution¶ THE UNPRECEDENTED UPSURGE OF OIL PRODUCTION ¶ CAPACITY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD” The Geopolitics of Energy Project at The Harvard Kennedy Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf)
Saudi Arabia. Despite the recurring doubts about Saudi Arabia’s capacity to maintain its ¶ production levels, the Kingdom has always made short work of its critics. In 2006, just as ¶ Matthew Simmons’ book Twilight in the Desert suggested that the country had already surpassed ¶ its own peak production capacity, Saudi Arabia announced a plan to increase its production ¶ capacity by about 2.5 mbd in four years, an amount equal to the current oil supply of Mexico and ¶ Venezuela combined?. The plan was carried out smoothly and now the Saudi production capacity ¶ (the world’s largest) stands at 12.3 mbd (see note at pp. 10-11). An additional plan was discussed ¶ to raise this level to 15 mbd, but the steady growth of the global supply capacity has convinced ¶ the Saudi government to limit future expansion both for fear of creating excess spare capacity, ¶ and—above all—to allocate more spending on social programs and job creation in sectors other¶ than oil, the key preoccupation of the Saudi Monarchy. Consequently, the only project that is now ¶ under development concerns the giant Manifa field, which is commence by 2015, adding 900,000 ¶ bd to the Saudi production capacity. Given the progress of the project and the lack of hurdles in ¶ bringing it onstream as planned, I did not apply any discount to this figure.¶ All other programs aim to preserve the current production capacity of the Kingdom, through ¶ either new technologies, or better reservoir management methods. In my view, these programs ¶ will allow the Kingdom to avoid any significant depletion from currently producing fields until ¶ 2020. Significantly, Saudi Aramco, the giant national oil company, stated that enhanced oil ¶ recovery technologies would not be necessary to maintain current production levels before 2025.
AT Independence Solves ME Military Focus Obama advisors say the aff doesn’t solve – energy won’t change the calculus
Chris Neiger 11/30/12 (writer for the motley fool, energy investment website with contributors that usually are industry consultants, “3 Things That Won’t Change if the U.S. Goes Oil Independent” http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/11/30/3-things-that-wont-change-if-the-us-goes-oil-indep.aspx)
2. U.S. foreign policy will still care about the Middle East¶ This year, about 18 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. By 2035, 25 million barrels of oil will pass through there every day – 50% of the global oil trade. The area has been a historical place of tension, and with the current U.S. and European sanctions on Iran, it's also an area Iran has threatened to close off completely. If there's a blockage of oil coming out of the strait for a few months, it could cripple the economies of India, China, and Japan – a scenario that could spawn a global recession.¶ The U.S. government still considers this region an important political territory where energy's concerned, and having our own oil won't change that. David L. Goldwyn, a former State Department coordinator for international energy affairs in the Obama administration told The New York Times: "The rise in domestic production will not diminish in any way the need for the U.S. to retain global reach, particularly in the Middle East."
No withdrawal
Andrew Stevens 10/23/12 (cnn, internall cites Niall Ferguson who is a complete badass, “U.S. set for fracking bonanza, says historian Ferguson” http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/23/business/america-shale-gas-ferguson-stevens/index.html)
And what of U.S. engagement in the Middle East?¶ Ferguson says it would be naive to assume that Washington would withdraw in any significant way from the region.¶ "Nobody is going to step in and take the job of being global policeman in charge of Middle Eastern stability. I think everyone would be nervous, if the Chinese suddenly volunteered to take that job on, which by the way they are not going to do anytime soon," he said.
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