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The Economist

September 5th 2020 

Britain

21

1

A

t the start

of June, when England

took a big step out of lockdown, many

observers were nervous. Dissenting mem-

bers of the official Scientific Advisory

Group for Emergencies (

sage

) warned the

government that allowing people to min-

gle risked another flare-up. The new test-

and-trace system, intended to squash out-

breaks, had only just been established.

Polling found that the public believed min-

isters were being insufficiently cautious. 

The government’s decision to ease re-

strictions was a gamble, but one that has

paid off. Following a small rise in July, the

Office for National Statistics’ infection sur-

vey, which tests a sample of people in Eng-

land and Wales each week, finds that the

number of cases has since remained flat.

Although there has been a gradual rise in

the number of positive test results, much

of this is accounted for by the fact that the

number of tests has increased, meaning

more asymptomatic cases are found and

false positives recorded. Hospital admis-

sions remain very low. 

England has so far avoided the spikes

seen recently in France and Spain, mean-

ing it is now in a similar position to Ger-

many (see chart). A recent study found that

6% of people in England have antibodies,

which may offer some protection against

the virus. There is huge uncertainty about

the level at which herd immunity kicks in,

but even London—where the study found

13% of people had antibodies—appears

short of the most optimistic estimates. 

The state has begun to do a better job at

preventing covid-19’s spread. The test-and-

trace system still has flaws, not least in the

time it takes to get results from tests. But

there is now a functioning system, which

helps suppress the growth of cases, as do

local restrictions where necessary. After a

weak start, Britain is now a testing heavy-

weight. Over the last week for which there

is data, it carried out 2.5 tests per 1,000 peo-

ple, compared with 1.7 in Spain and Ger-

many, and 1.8 in France.

Public caution has played a part in keep-

ing cases down, too. According to Google’s

mobility statistics, Britons are less likely to

have returned to work than those in other

big European countries; something the

government, concerned by the economic

implications, is now trying to change. John

Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London

School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,

and one of the dissenting 

sage

members

when restrictions were eased, notes that

cross-country data imply “the release from

lockdown has resulted in larger changes to

at-risk behaviour [in Europe] than here.” It

is unclear why this is.

With children returning to school and

students to university, and people moving

indoors as the weather cools, keeping cases

down will soon become trickier. “I think al-

though we’ve got a lot of testing going on,

we probably don’t have anywhere near as

much as we will need to manage the next

month or so,” says Sir John Bell of the Uni-

versity of Oxford. There has been a worry-

ing jump in cases in Scotland, and it will be

difficult to avoid importing cases from

parts of Europe that are currently seeing

spikes, given the volume of summer travel.

Removing restrictions went better than ex-

pected in England. That does not mean

some will not have to be reimposed over

the coming months.

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