HCSS REPORT 61
World,”
Foreign Policy
, no. 192 (April 2012): 1–7; Paul D. Miller, “American Grand Strategy
and the Democratic Peace,”
Survival
54, no. 2 (May 2012): 49–76, doi:10.1080/00396338.2012.672705; Ryan Maness and Brandon Valeriano, “Russia
and the Near Abroad: Applying a Risk Barometer for War,”
Journal of Slavic Military Studies
25, no. 2 (April 2012): 125–
48, doi:10.1080/13518046.2012.676453; Arkady Moshes, “Russia’s European Policy under Medvedev:
How Sustainable
Is a New Compromise?,”
International Affairs
88, no. 1 (January 2012): 17–30, doi:10.1111/j.1468-2346.2012.01054.x;
Tuomas Forsberg, “Vincent Pouliot, International Security in Practice: The Politics of NATO–Russia Diplomacy,”
Europe-
Asia Studies
64, no. 1 (January 2012): 169–71, doi:10.1080/09668136.2012.636918.
107 Ismail, “Breaking the Impasse.”
108 Kireeva, “The Role of the Great Powers (China, Japan, India, USA, Russia) in Structuring Space in Eastern Asia,” 2013,
http://www.mgimo.ru/files2/y11_2013/243485/autoref_kireeva.pdf.
109 Steven Blank, “Russia and Latin America:
Geopolitical Games,” April 2009, http://www.ifri.org/?page=detail-
contribution&id=5733&id_provenance=97.
110 “Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation, Approved by President of
the Russian Federation V. Putin on 12 February 2013,” n.d., http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/ns-osndoc.nsf/
e2f289bea62097f9c325787a0034c255/0f474e63a426b7c344257b2e003c945f!OpenDocument.
111 “Russia and the Changing World: Vladimir Putin’s Article,”
Moscow News
, February 27, 2012, http://www.mn.ru/
politics/20120227/312306749.html.
112 Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute,
SIPRI Yearbook 2013.
113 In 2012, military expenditures in Asia exceeded those of the European Union for the first time ever.
114 International Institute for Strategic Studies,
The Military Balance 2013,
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,
SIPRI Yearbook 2013.
115 “The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, 1988-2012,”
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
, n.d.,
http://milexdata.sipri.org/.
116 Inc Akamai Technologies,
The State of the Internet: 3rd Quarter, 2013 Report
, 2013.
117 Data are published by the “United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Database,” n.d., http://unctadstat.
unctad.org/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sRF_ActivePath=P,5,27&sRF_Expanded=,P,5,27.
118 Patent filings (source: OECD, 1980-2011) show the dynamics and the extent of the success of a country’s innovative
capacity.
119
In the case of GDELT, these figures represent changes over the period 2003-2013 from a certain baseline. For instance, the
2003 base level for Russia remains significantly higher than the one for China. But red here indicates that the increase
from that baseline has been much more pronounced in the China than in the Russia case.
120 Graham T Allison,
Essence of Decision; Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis
(Boston: Little, Brown, 1971). See also more
recent scholarship on this such as David R. Gibson,
Talk at the Brink: Deliberation and Decision During the Cuban Missile
Crisis
(Princeton University Press, 2012); Richard Feinberg,
The Soviet Cuban Missile Crisis: Castro, Mikoyan, Kennedy,
Khrushchev, and the Missiles of November
(COUNCIL FOREIGN RELAT IONS INC HAROLD PRATT HOUSE, 58 E 68TH ST,
NEW YORK, NY 10065 USA, 2013); ibid.; James A. Nathan, “The Cuban Missile Crisis Revisited: Why It Matters Who
Blinked,”
Foreign Affairs
91, no. 6 (December 2012): 163–66; Graham Allison, “The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50,”
Foreign
Affairs
91, no. 4 (August 7, 2012): 11–16; Arthur I. Cyr, “The Cuban Missile Crisis after Fifty Years,”
Orbis
57, no. 1 (2013):
5–19.
121 Bekkers et al.,
De Toekomst in Alle Staten. HCSS Strategic Monitor 2013. [The Future in All Its States].
3 WHY ARE PIVOT STATES SO PIVOTAL? THE ROLE
OF PIVOT STATES IN REGIONAL
AND GLOBAL SECURITY
1 Robert Gilpin,
War and Change in World Politics
(Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981), 34.
2
