Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Heg Turns Terrorism/Economy/Resource Wars/Democracy

Failure to reassert US hegemony risks terrorism, resource scarcity, global economic collapse and democratic consolidation

Goodspeed 9 [Peter, award winning reporter with the National Post, November 26, Lexis]

U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next 15 years; the world will become a more dangerous place; food, water and energy shortages could spark regional conflicts and, while the appeal of terrorism might decline, terrorists themselves will become more deadly and dangerous thanks to new technology, the report says. "The international system -- as constructed following the Second World War -- will be almost unrecognizable by 2025," the study predicted. New powers, especially China and India, will grow in influence and the world will be transformed by a globalizing economy and a historic transfer of wealth and economic power from West to East. The report identified a great "arc of instability" stretching from sub-Saharan Africa through North Africa into the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, South and Central Asia and parts of Southeast Asia. The power of non-state actors -- businesses, tribes, religious organizations and criminal networks -- will also increase. By 2025, droughts, food shortages and scarce water resources, related to climate change, could plague large areas of the globe, from China to the Horn of Africa, triggering mass migrations and political upheavals. The influence of the United Nations, the World Bank and a host of other international organizations that have maintained political and economic stability since the Second World War will also plummet. The world will enter an increasingly unstable and unpredictable period in which the advance of Western-style democracy is no longer assured, the study said. "The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant," the report said. "Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the U.S. into a difficult set of trade-offs between domestic versus foreign policy priorities." In the wake of the then just erupting 2008 global financial crisis, "the better economic performance of many authoritarian governments could sow doubts among some about democracy as the best form of government," the report predicted.

Heg Turns Terrorism/Economy/Resource Wars/Democracy

Failure to reassert US hegemony risks super terrorism, world economic collapse, democratic consolidation

Goodspeed 9 [Peter, award winning reporter with the National Post, November 26, Lexis]

U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next 15 years; the world will become a more dangerous place; food, water and energy shortages could spark regional conflicts and, while the appeal of terrorism might decline, terrorists themselves will become more deadly and dangerous thanks to new technology, the report says. "The international system -- as constructed following the Second World War -- will be almost unrecognizable by 2025," the study predicted. New powers, especially China and India, will grow in influence and the world will be transformed by a globalizing economy and a historic transfer of wealth and economic power from West to East. The report identified a great "arc of instability" stretching from sub-Saharan Africa through North Africa into the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, South and Central Asia and parts of Southeast Asia. The power of non-state actors -- businesses, tribes, religious organizations and criminal networks -- will also increase. By 2025, droughts, food shortages and scarce water resources, related to climate change, could plague large areas of the globe, from China to the Horn of Africa, triggering mass migrations and political upheavals. The influence of the United Nations, the World Bank and a host of other international organizations that have maintained political and economic stability since the Second World War will also plummet. The world will enter an increasingly unstable and unpredictable period in which the advance of Western-style democracy is no longer assured, the study said. "The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant," the report said. "Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the U.S. into a difficult set of trade-offs between domestic versus foreign policy priorities." In the wake of the then just erupting 2008 global financial crisis, "the better economic performance of many authoritarian governments could sow doubts among some about democracy as the best form of government," the report predicted.

***SOFT POWER***

Soft Power Solves Heg

Soft power key to American hegemony- foundation of military alliance

CSIS 9 [April, Volume 9-No. 2, Pacific Forum, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/issuesinsights_v09n02.pdf]

Young Leaders conclude that it is in America’s interest to deepen engagement with Asian allies in all fields. Although nontraditional security issues are the center of discussion, Young Leaders recognize that military engagement is a building block of our alliances and thus do not imply that the current emphasis on military relations needs to be decreased. However, without broadening the alliance structure to include more soft power tools, including Track II cooperative efforts, strictly military-based alliances will not be a sufficient tool to face evolving nontraditional security threats. Thus, the U.S. needs to build upon these military alliance structures to ensure they are always relevant to the challenges and threats of the 21st century.