Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Afghan Stability Solves Middle East Instability

Stability in Afghanistan is critical to Middle East stability.

Lieven 7(Anatol Senior Research Fellow, New America Foundation “Middle East Policy Council”)AQB

So looking at the inevitable consequences of American withdrawal, the situation after America does withdraw, what should we be concerned with most critically? Well, the first is something which is too often not talked about in the context of the Middle East, and that is of course Afghanistan. De facto defeat in Iraq will be bad enough. De facto defeat in Afghanistan would be a catastrophic humiliation for the United States, and would in effect mark defeat in the war on terror as a whole. Now by defeat in Afghanistan I don't mean that the Taliban can actually chase us out like Vietnam in '75. But that we also get into a situation where America, and Britain for that matter, and whoever remains there, which won't be very many allies, I think, are suffering a continual stream of heavy casualties with no prospect of actually creating a successful, halfway successful and stable Afghan state. Now this fits into the Middle East not just because American strategy as a whole in the war on terror, but also because Iran is absolutely critical to the stabilization, the development of Afghanistan. And not just that, but if in the future we ever face the situation in which we are going to withdraw from Afghanistan as well, well then, we go back to the situation before 9/11 in which Iran and Russia were critical to keeping the Northern Alliance going against the prospect of the Taliban conquering the whole country.

Afghan Stability Solves Pakistan Instability

Afghanistan holds strong political, economic and ethnic ties to Pakistan – if Afghanistan collapses so does Pakistan.

Rhinefield 6(Jeffrey, Lieutenant, United States Navy National Security Affairs “IMPLICATIONS OF SOCIETAL FRAGMENTATION FOR STATE FORMATION: CAN DEMOCRACY SUCCEED IN AFGHANISTAN?” Pg 86-87)AQB

Like Iran, Pakistan shares a long historical and strong ethnic bond with Afghanistan. More than any other state in the region, the stability and success of Afghanistan is extremely crucial to Pakistan and its national security. These tight bonds create the conditions, unlike any other state in the region, where Afghanistan’s success has a direct impact on Pakistan on many different social and political levels.248 First and foremost, Pakistan’s northern frontier states are inhabited by Pashtuns tribes and clans that share a strong ethnic bond with their Afghan relatives; in some case tribes literally live on both sides of the border of both states and don’t recognize either state’s legitimate rule over them. If Afghanistan fails as a state or is drawn into open civil war, this could have a far reaching negative effect within Pakistan’s borders. As goes the fate of Afghanistan’s Pashtuns, so does that of Pakistan’s Pashtuns. Economically, a sound and stable Afghanistan would be very beneficial to Pakistan as it tries to increase its trade with Central Asia and turn itself into a conduit of natural resources, flowing from the region to the remainder of the globe. A strong Afghan government could “enable Pakistan to secure access to the Central Asian Republics with which they have no common border.” 249 Peimani further writes that “any amount of Central Asian trade conducted via the Pakistani route would be a welcoming economic activity for the Pakistanis because it would provide income in transit fees and generate long term employment.”250 The failed attempts, under the Taliban rule, to secure passage for a pipeline from Central Asia to Pakistan that would transport valuable natural resources, has not been forgotten by the Pakistanis who wish, more than anything, to have an Afghan government that is able to negotiate such deals and provide security for any future pipeline that might be built.

Afghan instability leads to Pakistan economic and political instability

BBC 9 [September 1, Lexis]

Bukhari asks Masood: "If a crisis happens in Kabul, what should we do in terms of steps forward other than what we have done so far? Masood: "We should follow in letter and spirit what we have been saying, that we are not interested in any one individual or party; we are interested in the stability of Afghanistan, because Afghanistan's stability is far more important than beating any individual or group. The whole geo-strategic importance of Pakistan depends on the stability of Afghanistan. On one side, we have India blocking us because of our relationship with them. One the other side, if there is instability in Afghanistan, then Pakistan truly becomes landlocked in the political and economic sense."

Collapse of Afghanistan government collapses Pakistan sparking regional war

Watt and Temko 7 [Nicholas and Ned, Political Editor and Chief Political Correspondent, July 15, The Guardian UK, http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2126817,00.html]

Britain's most senior generals have issued a blunt warning to Downing Street that the military campaign in Afghanistan is facing a catastrophic failure, a development that could lead to an Islamist government seizing power in neighbouring Pakistan. Amid fears that London and Washington are taking their eye off Afghanistan as they grapple with Iraq, the generals have told Number 10 that the collapse of the government in Afghanistan, headed by Hamid Karzai, would present a grave threat to the security of Britain. Lord Inge, the former chief of the defence staff, highlighted their fears in public last week when he warned of a 'strategic failure' in Afghanistan. The Observer understands that Inge was speaking with the direct authority of the general staff when he made an intervention in a House of Lords debate. 'The situation in Afghanistan is much worse than many people recognise,' Inge told peers. 'We need to face up to that issue, the consequence of strategic failure in Afghanistan and what that would mean for Nato... We need to recognise that the situation - in my view, and I have recently been in Afghanistan - is much, much more serious than people want to recognise.' Inge's remarks reflect the fears of serving generals that the government is so overwhelmed by Iraq that it is in danger of losing sight of the threat of failure in Afghanistan. One source, who is familiar with the fears of the senior officers, told The Observer: 'If you talk privately to the generals they are very very worried. You heard it in Inge's speech. Inge said we are failing and remember Inge speaks for the generals.' Inge made a point in the Lords of endorsing a speech by Lord Ashdown, the former Liberal Democrat leader, who painted a bleak picture during the debate. Ashdown told The Observer that Afghanistan presented a graver threat than Iraq. 'The consequences of failure in Afghanistan are far greater than in Iraq,' he said. 'If we fail in Afghanistan then Pakistan goes down. The security problems for Britain would be massively multiplied. I think you could not then stop a widening regional war that would start off in warlordism but it would become essentially a war in the end between Sunni and Shia right across the Middle East.'