Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Bravo Lab China da

Containment Link - Japan

US withdrawal from Japan promotes China’s interests in the region, and weakens the ability of the alliance to check China
Solomon and Hayashi 2010

(Jay Solomon and Yuka Hayashi, Asia News Correspondents, “As China Swaggers, Neighbors Embrace U.S”, Wall Street Journal, May 25, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704026204575266333652277148.html)

Mr. Hatoyama entered office last year pursing a policy line very much in China's interest—a more "equal" relationship between Tokyo and Washington, and the reduction of U.S. troops on Okinawa. Japan's leader has also repeatedly discussed the idea of creating an "East Asia" community modeled after the European Community. Still, China-Japan relations have soured significantly in recent months. In early May, Japan filed a formal protest to Beijing after a Chinese ship chased a Japanese coast guard vessel that Tokyo says was conducting marine surveys within a Japanese zone. Japan filed another protest a month earlier after a Chinese helicopter buzzed a Japanese ship sailing near the location of Chinese military exercises. On May 15, Japanese and Chinese diplomats publicly sparred at a meeting in South Korea, after Tokyo's Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada pressed Beijing to shrink, or at least not increase, its nuclear-weapons arsenal. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi countered that Beijing's nuclear strategy was clear and its position on disarmament widely recognized. But Mr. Okada repeated his remarks at a trilateral meeting with South Korea's chief diplomat. According to people familiar with the exchange, Mr. Yang became so upset that he started yelling at Mr. Okada. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman later called Mr. Okada's remarks "irresponsible." Mr. Okada said such accusations were groundless. "The Chinese side stated various things during our exchange," he said. "But I didn't hear them say once they weren't building up" their nuclear arsenal. U.S. officials acknowledged this week that while China's actions have likely played a role in Japan deciding to extend the U.S. military presence on Okinawa, they added that Washington remains worried that rising China-Japan tensions pose a longer-term security threat to U.S. interests. "No one benefits if things deteriorate further," said a senior U.S. official.

Containment Good - Restraint

US leadership in Asia prevents conflict with China, increasing Chinese leadership will lead to an aggressive pursuit of national interests
Sutter 2007

(Robert Sutter, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, “Does China Seek to Dominate Asia and Reduce US influence as a Regional Power?”, Carnegie Debates, April 20, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Sutter_paper.pdf)

On balance, this writer judges that US policy makers in the Congress and the US administration would be prudent to assume that China’s recently more cooperative approach to the United States in Asia is based on an assessment of the costs and benefits of this approach for Chinese interests. China’s preference remains a multipolar world where the United States would be less prominent than it is today and would not be the leading power in Asian and world affairs. China’s goals for its own power and influence in Asia seem hazy, even to Chinese leaders. China’s recent maneuvering against Japan and India regarding permanent membership in the UN Security Council, in ASEAN and in other Asian multilateral organizations, and other steps strongly reinforce a judgment that China seeks advantage over these powers in the emerging Asian order. To assume that China seeks to be the leading Asian power as it seeks diminishing US leadership in Asia would appear to be a prudent course for US policy makers. One lesson that flows from this line of analysis is that China’s approach to the United States in Asia depends on circumstances that determine the costs and benefits of China’s approach. If the circumstances were to change, the perceived costs and benefits would change, and likely would lead to change in China’s approach to the United States in Asia. For example, if China were to grow in power and influence in Asian and world affairs relative to the United States, China’s leaders might see less cost associated with a policy of stronger opposition to the US position and interests in Asia. Also, if the United States were to adopt strong support for Taiwan independence or to seriously restrict access to US markets for Chinese, these moves could trigger a reevaluation by China’s leaders of the cost and benefits of the recent generally accommodating Chinese approach toward the United States in Asia, resulting in a tougher stance against US leadership and interests in Asia.

Containment Good – Checks Expansionism

Western containment strategies dissuade China from pursuing hegemonic aspirations

Lam 10 (Willy, Adjunct Professor of China studies at Akita International University, Japan, and at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Bejing Sees shift in Geopolitics, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=36120) MAH

There are indications, however, that the Hu leadership’s assessment of China’s unprecedented power projection has been less than satisfactory – and that the foreign-policy establishment has at least temporary switched back to a more moderate if not conciliatory stance. For example, Beijing has so far not announced specific punitive measures against U.S. corporations. And while military-to-military exchanges have been suspended, the Foreign Ministry last month allowed the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz to make a port call on Hong Kong (Wall Street Journal, February 19; AFP, February 11). More significantly, senior officials have sought to reassure the global community that China is not harboring “hegemonic” aspirations. On his recent European tour, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi reiterated the familiar doctrine that China’s rise will not upset the global order. “The logic that ‘a strong country will become hegemonic’ is contrary to China’s history,” Yang said. “This is also against the intention of the Chinese people.” Citing Confucius’ famous dictum, Yang added that “‘maintaining harmony in the midst of differences’ is a value much treasured by the Chinese people” (China Daily, February 8; China News Service, February 6). A likely factor behind the apparent softening of Beijing’s diplomatic gambit could be fears of a backlash from countries that have been burnt by the fire-spitting dragon. General Yang Yi has warned of the danger of the emergence of an “anti-China coalition” in the West. “Some Western nations may adopt the formula of ‘making individual moves to produce the effect of concerted action’ – and join the ‘contain China’ camp one after the other,” he said. Under this scenario, the well-known strategist added, “[anti-China] measures may come one after the other the rest of the year.” A late February commentary by the Beijing-run Hong Kong journal Bauhinia also drew attention to the possible worsening of the international climate this year. The monthly magazine noted that Western countries’ dependence on China might lessen in the wake of the global economic recovery. “It is possible the West will put more pressure on China over issues such as Tibet, Xinjiang, human rights, the value of the Renminbi as well as trade protectionism,” the commentary said. “Forces calling for the ‘containment of China’ may also rear their head” (China News Service, February 27; Xinhuatimes.net, February 4).

Containment Good – Checks Expansion
Taiwan and Japan will depend on the United States to check Chinese military expansion

Wall Street Journal 6-8 (Gates on China, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704183204575289743788180892.html?KEYWORDS=Defense+Secretary+Robert+Gates+made+a+notable+contribution+to+the+free+world's+d)

Defense Secretary Robert Gates made a notable contribution to the free world's defense this weekend, and it didn't involve money, missiles or troops. He talked frankly about how China's military expansion threatens peace and security in the Pacific. "The South China Sea is an area of growing concern," Mr. Gates told fellow defense officials Saturday at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The U.S. supports "stability, freedom of navigation, and free and unhindered economic development," and the Pentagon objects to "any effort to intimidate U.S. corporations or those of any nation engaged in legitimate economic activity." This is a welcome rhetorical shift. The Obama Administration spent its first year in office bending over backward to please China on everything from human rights to Beijing's support for rogue regimes in North Korea and Burma. Meanwhile, the Chinese military has begun to push into other nations' territorial waters, from Japan to Vietnam, to the extent of harassing naval vessels. Chinese officials have begun calling the South China Sea a "core interest," implying sovereignty over international waters. Mr. Gates's comments combined with tougher rhetoric from new Pacific Command chief Robert Willard, suggest the Pentagon thinks it's time to draw brighter lines around this kind of misbehavior. That will come as a relief to such U.S. treaty allies as Taiwan and Japan, which depend on the U.S. security umbrella to counter China's military buildup, and to every country that uses the South China Sea's busy shipping lanes. It's also appropriate given that China has once again cut off lines of communication with the U.S. military—a policy Mr. Gates criticized Saturday. "Chinese officials have broken off interactions between our militaries, citing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as the rationale," he said, adding the policy makes "little sense" and risks "miscommunication, misunderstanding and miscalculation." Those risks were immediately obvious Saturday when a participant asked Mr. Gates why America considers the Chinese to be "enemies." The normally quiet Defense Secretary bristled "for the record that the United States does not consider China as an enemy but as a partner in many areas." The clearer the U.S. is in responding to Chinese military assertiveness, the less likely China will miscalculate and become an enemy.