Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Bravo Lab China da

UQ – Containment Now

US- China containment policy is on the rise: US-led military exercises prove

China Matters 7/9/10. (“It's Official: America Has a China-Containment Policy.” China Matters. July 9, 2010). LRH.

 

The submarines aren't the only new potential issue of concern for the Chinese. Two major military exercises involving the U.S. and its allies in the region are now under way. More than three dozen naval ships and subs began participating in the "Rim of the Pacific" war games off Hawaii on Wednesday. Some 20,000 personnel from 14 nations are involved in the biennial exercise, which includes missile drills and the sinking of three abandoned vessels playing the role of enemy ships. Nations joining the U.S. in what is billed as the world's largest-ever naval war game are Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Peru, Singapore and Thailand. Closer to China, CARAT 2010 - for Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training - just got under way off Singapore. The operation involves 17,000 personnel and 73 ships from the U.S., Singapore, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.... China is absent from both exercises, and that's no oversight. Many nations in the eastern Pacific, including Australia, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and Vietnam, have been encouraging the U.S. to push back against what they see as China's increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea. And the U.S. military remains concerned over China's growing missile force - now more than 1,000 - near the Taiwan Strait. The Tomahawks' arrival "is part of a larger effort to bolster our capabilities in the region," Glaser says. "It sends a signal that nobody should rule out our determination to be the balancer in the region that many countries there want us to be." No doubt Beijing got the signal. 

US containment policy is on the rise: China’s refusal to go along with the Cheonan campaign has created a containment atmosphere

Lee 7/2/10. (Peter, writer for the Asia Times. “China smarts at US slap.” Asia Times. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LG02Ad02.html). LRH
Chosun Ilbo, the South Korean daily newspaper, piled on, making the counter-intuitive, at least to China, point that heightening tensions with a denunciation was the best way to reduce tensions - while making it clear that South Korea believed that China was forfeiting its position as regional leader - and even "bringing the Cold War atmosphere back" - by not going along on the Cheonan campaign: If China had boosted international condemnation of the sinking, the security situation on the peninsula would have been markedly different. A firm stance by Beijing could have even improved stability. In other words, China is also responsible for bringing the Cold War atmosphere back to the region ...  As long as China insists on standing by North Korea, which continues to produce nuclear weapons and attack South Korea, the South has no choice but to consider other options. If China continues to take the short-sighted approach of rallying behind a belligerent North Korea, Asian countries and the international community will grow increasingly suspicious of Beijing's role on the global stage. [2] Amid this storm of criticism, it undoubtedly did not escape Beijing's attention that the other superpower that has so far declined to endorse the Cheonan findings - Russia - was excused from public humiliation.  China riposted promptly with a People's Daily editorial pointedly entitled "Blindness to China's efforts on the Peninsula", which labeled Obama's remarks as "irresponsible and flippant" and continued: Without China's involvement, there would not have been the six-party talks, and the outbreak of yet another Korean War might well have been a possibility.  Ultimately, the solution to tensions on the Korean Peninsula hinges on eliminating the last vestiges of the Cold War. This is the time for all sides involved to break the old, hardened pattern and think of new ways of dealing with North Korea. This is China's constructive proposal that deserves serious consideration by all parties involved.  The US cannot ignore the fact that China remains the most important channel of effective communication in this situation. [3] It would appear that the Obama administration's efforts to sideline China and promote South Korea and the US to central stage in managing the North Korea issue have created a perverse incentive for Beijing and Pyongyang to cooperate and even raise tensions in the peninsula in order to demonstrate their indispensability. 

Containment Link - Presence

Asian leaders are concerned that the United States may fail to respond to a growing Chinese military

Mahnken 9 (Tom, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning, Why the U.S. should keep an eye on China's military, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/11/16/why_the_us_should_keep_an_eye_on_chinas_military)

One topic that is likely to arise during President Obama's trip to Asia, if not in his meetings in Beijing, is the continuing modernization of the Chinese military. Asian leaders are privately, and increasingly publicly, concerned about China's growing military might and what they see as a failure of the United States to respond. This year's Australian defense white paper, for example, portrays a future in which China contests American primacy in Asia and beyond. When one of the United States' closest allies expresses such concerns, Washington should listen. According to at least one high-ranking official, the United States has systematically underestimated the pace and scope of Chinese military modernization for years. On Oct. 21 in an interview with the Voice of America, the incoming Commander of U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM), Admiral Robert F. Willard, USN, told reporters that, "In the past decade or so, China has exceeded most of our intelligence estimates of their military capability and capacity, every year. ... They've grown at an unprecedented rate in those capabilities. And, they've developed some asymmetric capabilities that are concerning to the region, some anti-access capabilities and so on." Willard should know. Prior to becoming the USPACOM commander, he was in command of all U.S. naval forces in the Pacific; before that, he was Vice Chief of Naval Operations. Willard's observation should be cause for concern, but is not a surprise. Intelligence organizations have a tendency to underestimate rising powers. As I discuss in my book, Uncovering Ways of War, U.S. Army and Navy intelligence in the period between the two world wars underestimated the growth of the Japanese military power not because of racial bias or ethnocentrism, but rather because of the very real tendency to look back on Japan's modest military capabilities and project them into the future. As a result, American intelligence organizations overlooked a number of areas where the Japanese military innovated, failures that cost the United States and its allies dearly in World War II. I suspect that the same pathologies may be at work today regarding China. The People's Liberation Army of the 1980s and 1990s was hardly first-rate. In recent years, however, China has made real strides, including the testing of an anti-satellite weapon in July 2007 and the development of an anti-ship ballistic missile designed to attack U.S. carrier strike groups. Outside a small circle of cognoscenti, however, perceptions of Chinese military power have failed to keep pace with this reality.