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SCO Bad – PRC Expansion
China is using the SCO to expand its military influence in Central Asia
Cohen 6 (Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, What to Do About the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Rising Influence, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav092106.shtml)
The cost to Washington of not actively addressing the issue of the SCO's expanding influence could be high. The Chinese-Russian strategic partnership poses a serious threat to the US geopolitical position in Central Asia. Indications of the Chinese-Russian partnership wanting to systematically reduce US influence in the region are evident in Uzbekistan's demand that American military forces leave the Karshi-Khanabad base in July 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Efforts by Moscow and Beijing to increase their influence in Kyrgyzstan also appear to have taken a toll in US interests. After prolonged negotiations, Washington and Bishkek finally managed to extend an agreement on the US military's use of an air base at Manas, outside the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek. To seal the deal, Washington had to agree to a massive rent hike: from an annual $2.7 million payment to $150-200 million per year. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A Russian base in Kyrgyzstan operates rent-free. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Peter Rodman, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, remarked recently; "The SCO is trying to ask us to leave the area in a hurry." China has been perhaps the most active country in using the SCO to remake Central Asia's order. Beijing is eager to expand its own regional military influence in Central Asia, going so far as to contact Kyrgyz officials to explore the possibility of Chinese military bases in Kyrgyzstan. The increasing militarization of the region raises the possibility of the use of militarily means to address regional issues, especially religious radicalism, terrorism, separatism and narcotics trafficking.
The SCO is focused on reducing US presence in Central Asia
Cohen 6 (Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, What to Do About the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Rising Influence, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav092106.shtml)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a major vehicle for a Chinese-Russian strategic cooperation, is exerting increasing pressure on US strategic interests in Central Asia. Robust engagement with the SCO by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would offer Washington the best way of containing the group's rising influence. The SCO, now comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, formally came into being in 2001. Since then, the organization has admitted India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan as observers. The SCO in recent years has promoted economic integration. At a meeting of SCO prime ministers, held September 15 in the Tajik capital Dushanbe, member states expressed an interest in expanding the region's trading infrastructure and engaging in joint efforts to develop energy export routes. However, the SCO is mainly focused on security issues, namely the Chinese tri-fecta of "terrorism, separatism and extremism." The SCO's security agenda is vast. The organization has been compared to the Warsaw Pact, and referred to as the "NATO of the East." Its agenda is infused with Chinese and Russian suspicion of US designs in Eurasia, and, more specifically, a desire to reduce US influence in Central Asia. This is evident in numerous SCO statements, including a declaration issued June 15 during the organization's fifth-anniversary summit.
SCO Bad - Leadership
SCO leadership will collapse US leadership
Stakelbeck 8 (Frederick, East Asia expert, Is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization a Military Confederacy, http://www.globalpolitician.com/21244-russia-china)
At this time, what steps need to be taken by the U.S. to prepare for a possible SCO military threat? First, the U.S. Congress, Department of Defense and U.S. intelligence community must recognize that the continued military modernization and integration involving Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Iran will directly threaten the U.S. and its allies within the next several years. This is an uncomfortable reality, but one which is taking shape right before our eyes. Second, calls by the SCO and others in the international community for an immediate withdraw of U.S. troops from the Middle East and Central Asia should be disregarded, due to the horrific consequences that the inevitable power vacuum would cause. Instead, strategic alliances should be strengthened with countries such as Georgia and the Ukraine to counter any regional threat. Third, recent calls by Iran for a Muslim seat on the UN Security Council should be viewed for what they are; an effort by Tehran to weaken U.S. legitimacy in the international community and diminish its influence in Central Asia and the Middle East. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s announcement that his country will sell “peaceful” nuclear technology to other Islamic countries is too chilling to contemplate. In short, the SCO is an immature, but potentially dangerous confederacy of countries with a mutual interest to dethrone the U.S. and if necessary, confront it militarily. Under the guise of economic partnership, regional alliances and friendship, China, Russia and the other members of the SCO are rapidly increasing their collective power. Recent Pentagon reports identifying China as a growing threat are indeed accurate, but don’t go far enough. The reports are deficient in that they base their analysis and predictions on countries such as China acting unilaterally. As a result, compulsory discussions concerning the rise of regional and global alliances that threaten the U.S. are not taking place. This could be a fatal mistake, since the SCO has become the perfect vehicle for coordinated military action in the future.
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