Global outlook c h a p t e r 1



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References
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No. 30, Bank for International Settlements, Basel. 
unexpected movements in the CBOE Volatility 
Index (VIX), capture volatile financial market 
expectations surrounding the pandemic’s project-
ed evolution. In the severe downside scenario, a 
large spike in volatility, coupled with a sharp and 
unexpected reduction in credit supply, are used to 
simulate the economic consequences of wide-
spread financial crisis.
5
In all scenarios, shocks to 
financial conditions notably affect real activity 
domestically, and those that occur in major 
financial centers such as the United States are 
assumed to spill over to other countries via the 
model’s financial channels.

The VIX index rises to an average of 53 over 2021Q2 and 
2021Q3 and credit spreads increase by 424 basis points on average 
over the same period. Exchange rates in EMDEs depreciate, reflecting 
the flight to safe havens.


C H A P T E R 1 
G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S | J A N U A R Y 2 0 2 1 
57 
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Bosio, E., M. Grujicic, and M. Iavorskyi. 2020. “There 
Is No Trade-off Between Quality and Efficiency in 
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September 25. https://voxeu.org/article/there-no-trade-
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Brinca, P., J. B. Duarte, and M. Faria e Castro. 2020. 
“Measuring Sectoral Supply and Demand Shocks 
during COVID-19.” Working Paper 2020-011B, 
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 
Buchheit, L., and M. Gulati. 2020. “Avoiding a Lost 
Decade—Sovereign Debt Workouts in the Post-
COVID Era.” 

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